Apple’s stock performance has also lagged. Over the past two and a half years, Apple has delivered a 35% total return, well below American Express’s 106% gain across the same period. The combination of sales and relative underperformance explains most of the shrinkage in Apple’s lead.
American Express Stake Benefits From Buybacks
Berkshire’s investment in American Express dates to 1964, when Warren Buffett purchased about 5% of the company after it was hurt by a high-profile loan-fraud scandal involving fabricated salad-oil inventories. Additional shares were accumulated during the 1990s, but Berkshire has not bought more stock since the end of that decade.
Even without fresh purchases, Berkshire’s ownership percentage has climbed to approximately 22% because American Express has repurchased considerable amounts of its own stock over the years. Those buybacks have reduced the number of shares outstanding, automatically lifting Berkshire’s proportionate stake.
Upcoming Filing Could Confirm a New Leader
The next official snapshot of Berkshire’s U.S. equity portfolio, covering the fourth quarter of 2025, is scheduled to appear in a 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission in about two weeks. If that report shows further Apple sales, American Express could move into the top position immediately. Alternatively, continued outperformance by American Express alone might be enough to secure the number-one slot, even if Berkshire stops trimming Apple.
Beyond the symbolic importance, a shift in the ranking would underline Buffett’s long-standing preference for financial-services franchises with durable competitive advantages. While Apple represents Berkshire’s largest technology exposure, American Express occupies a category Buffett has characterized for decades as fundamental to consumer spending and brand loyalty.
Relative Market Performance Since 2023
Since mid-2023, Apple shares have risen at a pace insufficient to counter the combined impact of Berkshire’s disposals and American Express’s stronger trajectory. During that period, Apple advanced roughly 35%, compared with American Express’s rise of more than 100%. Those numbers contrast sharply with the years preceding 2023, when Apple consistently outperformed many blue-chip peers, driving its position in Berkshire’s portfolio to historic highs.
The sales strategy has been decisive. Berkshire’s reduction of nearly three-quarters of its Apple shares removed tens of billions of dollars in market value from the portfolio. Meanwhile, American Express’s continued appreciation—boosted by consumer spending resilience and ongoing stock repurchases—compressed the difference further.
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Potential Implications for Portfolio Composition
A formal takeover of the top slot by American Express would not automatically signal a strategic overhaul. Berkshire maintains long-term perspectives on both holdings, and Buffett has frequently emphasized that portfolio weighting can shift for many reasons, including buybacks by the portfolio companies themselves. Nevertheless, market observers view the narrowing gap as evidence of Berkshire’s willingness to realize gains in Apple while remaining committed to its legacy positions in consumer-finance firms.
Should American Express become the largest holding, its relative size might draw additional analytical focus to the company’s earnings trajectory, capital-return policy, and exposure to economic cycles. Apple, even in second place, would continue to represent a core part of Berkshire’s technology exposure, reflecting Buffett’s 2016 decision to embrace the iPhone maker after years of avoiding most technology stocks.
What Could Happen Next
Three scenarios could influence the ranking over the next several months:
- Additional Apple sales. Any further disposition would mechanically reduce Apple’s value in the portfolio, potentially elevating American Express even if its share price stalls.
- Relative stock performance. A continuation of American Express’s outperformance—or a significant pullback in Apple—could shift the balance without trading activity from Berkshire.
- Corporate actions. Accelerated buybacks by either company would affect share counts and market values, introducing another variable into the comparison.
For now, the market will likely focus on Berkshire’s fourth-quarter filing and upcoming annual report to glean insight into any strategic adjustments. Apple and American Express remain among the most closely watched names in the Berkshire portfolio, and modest moves in either stock can alter the hierarchy.
As of the latest available data, Berkshire Hathaway holds cash exceeding $380 billion, providing ample flexibility for additional equity purchases or sales. The firm has not repurchased its own shares since May 2024, according to internal disclosures.
A final determination on whether American Express surpasses Apple will depend on the interaction of market pricing, Berkshire’s trading decisions, and corporate buyback activity in the coming weeks. Regardless of the outcome, the narrowing spread underscores the dynamic nature of portfolio management even inside an organization renowned for holding positions over multiple decades.
Crédito da imagem: CNBC
