Bill Gates Sees Progress Ahead but Flags Three Critical Tests for the Next 20 Years

Bill Gates remains confident that global living standards will continue to rise, yet he says the pace of improvement hinges on how the world addresses three pressing issues over the coming decades. In a blog post published Friday, the Microsoft co-founder and philanthropist reflected on current challenges—from climate change to artificial intelligence (AI)—and outlined the factors that, in his view, could determine whether humanity sustains recent gains or slips backward.

The Context: Better Off Than 70 Years Ago

Gates, who turned 70 in October, noted that technological innovation and advances in public health have produced dramatic benefits since his birth. Despite political polarization and economic uncertainty, he argued that global progress on poverty reduction and disease prevention demonstrates the potential for continued improvement. He pointed to the rapid drop in childhood mortality and the proliferation of digital tools as examples of how scientific breakthroughs translate into higher quality of life.

Three Questions That Could Shape the Future

The billionaire investor said his optimism “comes with footnotes,” organized around three questions that he believes will influence whether current trends advance or stall.

1. Will rising wealth translate into greater generosity?

According to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, deaths of children under five are projected to increase by roughly 200,000 in 2025—the first uptick in 25 years. Gates attributes the reversal chiefly to cutbacks in foreign aid budgets by major donors, including the United States. He argued that restoring those funds is essential to prevent further setbacks.

Gates also called on affluent individuals to expand private philanthropy. In May 2025, he announced plans to donate virtually all of his personal fortune—estimated by Bloomberg at $118 billion—by 2045. He wrote that a world with record numbers of billionaires and centibillionaires should be able to provide substantially more resources to initiatives that save lives and reduce inequality.

2. Will the world scale innovations that close gaps, not widen them?

Gates emphasized AI’s potential to accelerate discoveries in medicine and agriculture. He highlighted machine-learning tools that could speed Alzheimer’s research, improve cancer therapies, and help farmers in developing nations adapt to hotter climates with more resilient crops. He also reiterated his long-standing view that AI tutoring systems might one day offer personalized instruction comparable to “a great high-school teacher,” making quality education accessible across income levels and borders.

On the environmental front, he linked climate change to broader equity concerns, warning that rising temperatures could exacerbate poverty and infectious disease. Although he previously suggested reallocating some climate research funds toward health and development, Gates said he still intends to increase investments in low-carbon technologies. His goal, he wrote, is to ensure that clean-energy breakthroughs benefit poor and rich countries alike.

3. Will society limit AI’s negative side effects?

While underscoring AI’s promise, Gates acknowledged two associated risks: potential misuse by malicious actors and disruption to labor markets. He called for deliberate governance by both industry leaders and governments to curb threats such as AI-generated cyberattacks or disinformation campaigns.

Imagem: Internet

Regarding employment, Gates rejected the idea that automation must necessarily harm workers’ prospects. If managed thoughtfully, he argued, productivity gains could enable shorter workweeks and a higher standard of living. Success, he said, will depend on humanity’s “ability to anticipate problems and prepare for them” as well as its “capacity to care about each other.”

Historical Perspective and Forward Path

Gates anchored his outlook in two traits he considers defining: foresight and compassion. Throughout modern history, he wrote, societies have used these qualities to turn scientific advances into broad-based improvements—from vaccines that curbed polio to agricultural methods that reduced famine. Maintaining that momentum will require public and private sectors to coordinate on funding, regulation, and deployment of new technologies.

Outside organizations echo parts of Gates’s assessment. UNICEF data, for example, show that global under-five mortality fell by more than half between 1990 and 2022, highlighting what sustained investments in health systems can achieve. Yet the same reports warn that economic shocks or funding cuts could reverse gains quickly, reinforcing Gates’s call for renewed financial commitments.

What Comes Next

The philanthropist did not lay out a detailed policy roadmap but signaled that his foundation will concentrate on child health, poverty alleviation, climate solutions, and AI-driven research. He urged national leaders to restore development budgets and to craft guardrails for emerging technologies. At the individual level, he encouraged wealthy donors to expand giving and ordinary citizens to support evidence-based charities.

Gates closed by reiterating that progress is neither automatic nor guaranteed. However, he maintained that with sustained generosity, equitable application of innovation, and prudent management of AI’s risks, the world can continue the trajectory that has lifted billions out of extreme poverty and lengthened life expectancy. Whether those benchmarks are met, he suggested, will depend on the answers society provides to the three questions he posed.

Crédito da imagem: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation