Volatility peaked in October. Bitcoin climbed to an all-time high on October 2, boosted by robust trading volumes and stronger participation from traditional investors. Just eight days later, on October 10, an announcement of additional tariffs on Chinese goods and a threat to restrict exports of critical software sparked a rapid unwinding of leveraged positions. Liquidations across crypto derivatives surpassed $19 billion, the largest one-day figure on record, erasing weeks of gains in a matter of hours.
The pattern of abrupt rallies and steep corrections was mirrored across major equity benchmarks, which repeatedly set new highs before retreating on concerns about tariffs, interest-rate uncertainty and lofty valuations in artificial-intelligence-related shares. Market analysts observed that bitcoin’s intraday moves increasingly tracked those of the U.S. stock market, a sign that the asset is behaving less like a niche alternative investment and more like a mainstream risk barometer.
Data compiled by several trading desks indicate that the correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 strengthened noticeably this year, particularly during periods of market stress. Analysts attribute the development to a growing presence of retail traders and institutional funds that allocate to both stocks and digital assets, responding to the same macroeconomic signals. That trend, if it persists, could make cryptocurrencies even more sensitive in 2026 to potential shifts in monetary policy or renewed debate over equity valuations.
Regulatory developments offered a contrasting source of support for the sector. In Washington, the Securities and Exchange Commission moved quickly to drop high-profile enforcement actions filed during the previous administration against several prominent platforms, including Coinbase and Binance. Lawmakers also advanced—and ultimately enacted—legislation establishing nationwide standards for dollar-pegged tokens, providing long-sought clarity for firms that issue or trade stablecoins.
Industry advocates viewed the regulatory momentum as a major win, expecting it to encourage further capital inflows. Even so, the positive impact was overshadowed at times by broader market turbulence. A number of traders noted that supportive policy headlines often produced only brief price spikes before renewed worries about tariffs and global growth reasserted themselves.
Looking ahead, strategists say bitcoin’s performance will likely remain intertwined with traditional financial indicators. Factors such as the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate trajectory, the durability of corporate earnings and the evolution of trade relations could all influence crypto pricing in the year to come. Investors also face the prospect of tighter U.S. dollar liquidity, a variable that historically has affected demand for both equities and digital assets. For additional context on recent shifts in global markets, see the latest analysis from Reuters’ global markets desk.
Despite the challenging backdrop, crypto trading volumes have expanded relative to 2024, underscoring a continued appetite for the asset class among both speculators and longer-term allocators. Whether that engagement can translate into sustained price appreciation may depend on how successfully policymakers manage inflation, trade tensions and a potential slowdown in growth linked to elevated interest rates.
For now, bitcoin’s trajectory in 2025 underscores its shifting role within the broader financial landscape: an asset still capable of outsized gains, yet increasingly responsive to the same macro forces that shape conventional markets.
Crédito da imagem: Reuters
