Black Friday’s Traditional Frenzy Gives Way to Prolonged Discounts and Online Buying

The day after Thanksgiving once stood out as a single, high-stakes moment when retailers opened before dawn and crowds converged for the lowest prices of the year. Today, Black Friday remains significant, but its character has changed: store openings are later, promotions start weeks earlier, and more purchases happen on phones and laptops than at checkout counters.

The new shopping pattern

For the sixth consecutive year, more U.S. consumers are expected to shop online than in person on Black Friday, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). Data from analytics firm Placer.ai show that since 2021, visits to physical stores on the day after Thanksgiving have run more than 50% above an average day, yet the volume is no longer expanding. Foot traffic has essentially plateaued even as overall consumer spending continues to migrate to digital channels.

Retail chains have adjusted. Walmart divided its holiday offers into three separate online events—one in mid-November, another over the Thanksgiving weekend, and a final push on Cyber Monday. Kohl’s moved many promotions to earlier in the fall, and several big-box and department stores kept doors closed on Thanksgiving while still posting discounts on their websites. These tactics aim to reach shoppers who prefer to browse virtually and to ease operational strains that come with staffing a single, high-intensity sales day.

Weaker momentum in holiday spending

While Black Friday is still widely recognized, overall spending during the five-day stretch from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday—often called the “Turkey 5”—has slipped. NRF figures indicate that combined outlays fell nearly 13% between 2019 and 2024. A Deloitte survey suggests the trend will continue this season, with consumers planning to spend about 4% less than a year ago during the same period.

Demographic shifts reinforce the softer outlook. From 2023 to 2025, the proportion of millennials and Generation X shoppers who expect to make most purchases on Black Friday has declined. Responses are flat among Gen Z and baby boomers, according to the Bank of America Institute. The broader retail calendar now stretches discounts over several pay cycles, allowing shoppers to spread costs and reducing the need to concentrate purchases on a single day.

How dilution took hold

Industry veterans recall that in the 1980s a Black Friday promotion required a year of planning: negotiating deep supplier concessions, guarding price points from competitors, and procuring just enough inventory to sell out without sparking in-store chaos. As the event gained popularity, retailers extended store hours, opened on Thanksgiving, and eventually launched promotions days—and then weeks—before the holiday. Expanding deals to multiple departments increased staffing demands and complicated inventory control, prompting chains to push markdowns further up the calendar.

Meanwhile, online shopping, which had been growing steadily for two decades, surged during the COVID-19 pandemic. With e-commerce volumes now routinely outpacing in-store sales, merchants rely less on door-busting theatrics to generate holiday revenue. Spreading bargains across a season also makes it easier to recruit and train temporary workers for longer employment windows, rather than for a single overnight shift.

Skeptical consumers and persistent discounting

Frequent promotions before, during and after the holidays have eroded some shoppers’ trust that Black Friday offers represent the best price available. Consulting firm AlixPartners notes “rampant discounting” throughout the retail calendar, while higher base prices tied to tariffs and other costs can disguise markdowns that simply restore earlier price levels. Apparel brands such as Gap, Levi Strauss and Under Armour began their Black Friday sales on Thanksgiving, matching deals that had appeared earlier in the season.

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Mark Cohen, former chief executive of Sears Canada and now director of retail studies at Columbia Business School, argues that the perception of Black Friday as a unique bargain day has largely disappeared. In his view, the constant stream of markdowns means better prices often emerge closer to Christmas, removing the urgency that once drove pre-dawn lines outside big-box stores.

Retailers acknowledge that Black Friday will still feature highlighted “door busters” and limited-time offers, but many executives describe the overall environment as more subdued. Tiffany Yeh, a managing director in Boston Consulting Group’s consumer practice, notes that stretching promotions over several weeks helps merchants balance labor needs and maintain inventory without the operational bottlenecks that characterized earlier eras.

The outlook

Industry data suggest Black Friday will retain its symbolic status, yet the event now serves as one waypoint in a months-long promotional cycle rather than the singular engine of holiday sales. Online channels are expected to capture a growing share of revenue, while in-store traffic remains stable but no longer expands. The outcome is a retail landscape where urgency is muted, discounts are widespread, and shoppers can choose when—rather than where—to look for seasonal deals.

Additional context on industry spending patterns is available from the National Retail Federation, which tracks holiday retail performance each year.

Crédito da imagem: Getty Images