New Lines of Business
Coinbase recently rolled out equity and exchange-traded fund (ETF) trading for a subset of customers, marking its first significant step into traditional securities. The company has also opened a prediction-market platform that lets users wager on outcomes ranging from sports events to political contests. BofA views these additions as critical pieces of management’s vision to build an “everything exchange” where users can access multiple asset classes through a single interface.
By diversifying its offerings, Coinbase aims to cross-sell new products to an installed base that surpassed 100 million verified users at last count. The bank anticipates the broader menu will generate incremental revenue streams and help smooth earnings, which have historically been tied to swings in cryptocurrency prices and trading volumes.
Barclays Remains Cautious
Not all brokerages share BofA’s optimism. In a separate note published during the same week, Barclays reiterated an “Equal Weight” rating and lowered its price target to $258 from $291. The U.K. lender cited several near-term challenges in its fourth-quarter model, chief among them lower retail trading volumes, slower growth in the USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin, and persistent volatility across digital assets.
Barclays analysts added that Coinbase’s quarterly results, scheduled for release in the third week of February, will play a pivotal role in shaping near-term sentiment on the stock. The firm said it intends to monitor customer-trading trends, fee compression, and any updates on expense management.
Analyst Consensus Skews Positive
Despite mixed views, the overall analyst community remains mostly constructive. According to Bloomberg data, just under two-thirds of the 35 analysts covering Coinbase rate the shares “Buy,” with a median 12-month price objective suggesting a potential 55 percent gain. The stock closed Monday at approximately $220, leaving room for appreciation should the company meet or exceed market expectations.
Coinbase ended the September quarter with no long-term debt, a balance-sheet position praised by some analysts as a buffer against market turbulence. Management has also emphasized cost discipline after a series of layoffs and restructuring moves in 2024, efforts aimed at stabilizing profit margins in a lower-volume environment.
Industry Context
The broader cryptocurrency sector has endured a prolonged downturn following a series of regulatory actions and macroeconomic headwinds. Total crypto market capitalization fell from more than $2.9 trillion in late 2025 to roughly $1.7 trillion by mid-January 2026, according to CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin, the bellwether digital asset, is down over 30 percent from its November 2025 peak.
Amid the pullback, trading activity across major exchanges has contracted. Data provider CryptoCompare reported a 25 percent month-over-month decline in spot volumes for December, the steepest drop since mid-2024. This environment has pressured revenue at Coinbase, which derives a significant share of its income from transaction fees.
Product Velocity and Market Reach
BofA’s note highlighted what it called an “accelerating product velocity,” citing the speed at which Coinbase has introduced new features such as staking services, international expansion of its derivatives platform, and integrations with layer-2 networks that lower transaction costs. The bank said these initiatives could attract a broader audience and increase user engagement, offsetting the cyclical nature of crypto trading.
The report also pointed to the “expanding total addressable market” as Coinbase moves into adjacent segments. Management believes the addressable market could reach hundreds of millions of users globally as the platform folds in equities, ETFs, and prediction contracts. Over the long term, BofA projects that diversification could reduce the company’s reliance on retail crypto trading, historically its most volatile revenue component.
Next Catalysts
Investors will receive the next formal update when Coinbase posts fourth-quarter earnings in February. Consensus estimates compiled by FactSet call for revenue of roughly $1.1 billion and earnings per share of $0.85. Analysts will be watching for guidance on 2026 operating expenses, progress on international licensing, and early uptake of the equity-trading product.
Separately, market participants are monitoring the U.S. regulatory landscape. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has ongoing enforcement actions involving digital-asset platforms, and any policy developments could materially affect Coinbase’s operations. For additional context, industry observers can review the SEC’s public statements on crypto regulation on the agency’s official website.
Stock Performance
Coinbase began 2026 trading at about $245 per share but slipped to the low $200s amid the broader crypto selloff. Year to date, the stock is down close to 10 percent, compared with a 6 percent decline in the Nasdaq 100. However, it remains up more than 70 percent over the past 12 months, reflecting investor optimism after the company expanded beyond its original mandate.
While BofA’s $340 price target represents an approximate 55 percent premium to Monday’s closing price, Barclays’ revised $258 target would translate to only a modest upside. The divergence underscores the debate over whether Coinbase can maintain revenue momentum while diversifying its product stack and navigating a challenging macro backdrop.
Outlook
BofA’s upgrade positions Coinbase as one of the few large-capitalization, debt-free technology platforms earning a bullish call amid a choppy cryptocurrency market. Investors now turn to the company’s February earnings report for confirmation that expanded services, disciplined spending, and a wider addressable market can deliver the growth BofA anticipates, even as near-term headwinds persist.
Crédito da imagem: Pixabay
