Consultancy Rystad Energy estimates it would take around US$53 billion over the next 15 years just to keep volumes steady at today’s level. Achieving 3 million bpd by 2040 would require about US$183 billion in capital expenditure, the firm says. Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, called Venezuela “a high-risk area for oil companies to invest in,” noting that restoration costs would be substantial even under stable political conditions.
Political clarity is critical
Analysts stress that companies will not commit tens of billions of dollars until they have confidence in a stable legal and fiscal regime. “Energy investments typically last three decades, so firms need certainty that contract terms will survive future administrations,” said David Goldwyn, a former U.S. State Department envoy for international energy affairs.
For now, the outlook in Caracas remains unsettled. Over the weekend, Trump declared that the United States would oversee Venezuelan affairs after Maduro’s ouster. Secretary of State Marco Rubio later indicated Washington would instead leverage its influence to encourage compliance with U.S. conditions. Meanwhile, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has assumed control in Caracas, first pledging to defend national resources and then signaling a willingness to cooperate with Washington. The prospect that a future government could again nationalize foreign assets remains a central worry for potential investors, Rasmussen said.
Plenty of oil elsewhere
Another question is whether Venezuela’s sizable resource base is compelling enough in a market already flush with supply. Bob McNally, founder of consultancy Rapidan Energy and a former White House adviser, noted that global producers have multiple options for growth in lower-risk regions. “There are plenty of reasons to think this is going to be more of a long and winding road than a quick shot,” he said.
Even so, Chevron’s ongoing presence gives it an edge. The company has in-country infrastructure, existing production and knowledge of local reservoirs. “Chevron would be in an advantaged position to potentially scale future output,” JPMorgan analyst Arun Jayaram wrote in a client note. Investors appeared to agree: Chevron shares rose more than 5 percent on Monday after Trump’s comments.
Long road to recovery
Rebuilding Venezuela’s oil sector would involve repairing or replacing aging wells, pipelines and refineries that have suffered from years of underinvestment and mismanagement. Access to equipment, skilled labor and financing would also need to be restored. Even under favorable political conditions, analysts say increasing production to levels seen three decades ago could take many years.
For U.S. majors, the first hurdle will be clarity on governance. Until companies are assured that contracts will be honored and revenues can be repatriated, capital is likely to stay on the sidelines. Chevron’s head start may translate into early opportunities if sanctions are eased and a durable government emerges, but the scale of investment required and the memory of past expropriations will weigh heavily on boardroom decisions.
In the meantime, Venezuela’s oil fields remain largely untapped, with the nation’s economic fortunes and the interests of global energy firms intertwined in a high-stakes gamble over political stability and market dynamics.
Crédito da imagem: Jason Henry | Bloomberg
