Forecasting groups diverge on how those inflows will evolve. Energy Aspects currently projects average 2026 imports at 11.4 million bpd, essentially flat versus 2025. However, the firm cautions that actual volumes could climb, particularly in the second half of the year, should Beijing accelerate restocking. Citigroup offers a similar view, estimating that China stockpiled crude at roughly 800,000 bpd from March through November 2025 and could raise the rate to 900,000 bpd in 2026. When January and February are included, that figure rises to 990,000 bpd.
The effect of these flows extends beyond China. FGE NexantECA expects overall Asian oil demand to contract by 38,000 bpd in 2025 but rebound by 36,000 bpd in 2026, making the region one of only two continents where consumption is forecast to increase next year. These outlooks matter because Asia accounts for a significant portion of incremental global demand, a point underscored in regular market assessments from the International Energy Agency.
Still, not all indicators point to a straightforward rise in consumption. A Bloomberg analysis recently argued that China’s brisk import pace is obscuring a slowdown in end-user demand attributable to electric-vehicle adoption. Early December vehicle sales figures provide a more nuanced picture: total passenger-car deliveries in the country declined 32 percent year on year during the first week of the month, while sales of battery-electric and plug-in hybrid models fell 17 percent. The data suggest that the transition to alternative powertrains is subject to short-term fluctuations rather than a steady upward trajectory that immediately displaces large volumes of oil products.
Against this backdrop, market participants must weigh the onset of new storage capacity against the uncertain pace of fuel consumption growth. Chinese refiners have maintained crude runs high enough to support both domestic demand and product exports, while the government adjusts import quotas and refinery throughput in response to economic conditions. With November imports already exceeding projected 2026 averages, the possibility remains that next year’s actual figures will surpass conservative forecasts.
At the macro level, the combination of expanding reserve space, regular cargo arrivals, and oscillating vehicle sales illustrates why China continues to complicate global oil-demand modeling. As long as Beijing can accommodate additional barrels, apparent demand figures may overstate or understate true consumption, depending on inventory movements in any given month. Forecasters, therefore, face an ongoing challenge: separating genuine shifts in end-use demand from the country’s strategic decision to accumulate crude.
Crédito da imagem: Getty Images
