Clear Street Boosts Critical Metals Price Target to $20 After Saudi Joint Venture

New York, Jan. 30, 2026 — Brokerage firm Clear Street has increased its 12-month price target for Critical Metals Corp. (NASDAQ: CRML) from $14 to $20 following the miner’s decision to establish a 50–50 joint venture with Saudi Arabian industrial group Tariq Abdel Hadi Abdullah Al-Qahtani & Brothers. The firm reiterated its “Buy” rating, citing the partnership’s potential to secure funding, customers and a strategic foothold in the global rare-earth supply chain.

The non-binding agreement, announced on Jan. 15, calls for construction of a rare-earth processing facility in Saudi Arabia that will handle roughly 25 percent of the output from Critical Metals’ Tanbreez project in southern Greenland. According to preliminary plans, the refinery will focus on feedstock tailored for U.S. defense contractors, giving the miner an assured market segment in a sector facing pressure to diversify away from Chinese processing capacity.

Clear Street’s updated research note, published on Jan. 20, projects that Tanbreez will reach annual production of about 100,000 metric tons of rare-earth concentrate during its first phase. The brokerage argued that channeling one-quarter of that volume to the Saudi facility provides near-term revenue visibility while allowing the remaining 75 percent to be pre-sold to buyers in the United States and Europe. Management has already allocated the balance of future output under non-public agreements with customers in both regions, positioning the project as a cornerstone of a Western-aligned supply chain for advanced technologies.

Estimated capital expenditures for Tanbreez stand at approximately $290 million. To help cover those costs, the U.S. Export-Import Bank is weighing a $120 million loan, underscoring Washington’s interest in expanding alternative sources of critical minerals. The bank’s possible involvement was detailed in company filings and aligns with ongoing U.S. initiatives intended to reduce dependence on Chinese rare-earth refining.

The Saudi partnership arrives amid heightened geopolitical attention on Greenland’s mineral wealth. In recent months, senior Danish, Greenlandic and U.S. officials have held several meetings focused on securing access to resources deemed vital for renewable energy, electronics and defense applications. Analysts at Clear Street noted that a processing plant outside China and closer to end-users could shorten transit times and limit exposure to export restrictions.

Critical Metals, headquartered in Road Town, British Virgin Islands, is a subsidiary of Australia-listed European Lithium Limited. The company explores for lithium in Austria and rare-earth elements in Greenland, making Tanbreez its flagship asset. Management expects the mine to generate mixed rare-earth concentrate containing neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium—metals widely used in permanent magnets for electric vehicles, wind turbines and precision-guided munitions.

In its investment thesis, Clear Street highlighted three factors supporting the higher target price: first, the joint venture lowers project-financing risk by introducing a well-capitalized partner; second, it secures an anchor customer base for at least one quarter of output; and third, it enhances the likelihood that public-sector lenders will step in, given the operation’s alignment with U.S. strategic priorities. The brokerage also pointed to Tanbreez’s existing mining license, granted by Greenlandic authorities, as a key differentiator from earlier-stage peers.

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Under the terms of the proposed joint venture, both parties will share capital expenditures and operating costs for the Saudi refinery. Tariq Al-Qahtani & Brothers, a diversified conglomerate with interests in energy, steel and chemicals, will oversee local permitting and infrastructure. Critical Metals will supply ore under a long-term offtake contract and provide technical expertise related to rare-earth separation.

While Clear Street expressed confidence in the project’s economics, it warned that final investment decisions hinge on completing feasibility studies, securing debt financing and negotiating definitive agreements with the Saudi partner. Regulatory approvals in Greenland and Saudi Arabia remain outstanding. Management stated that it aims to reach financial close by the end of 2026 and commence first-phase production at Tanbreez shortly thereafter.

Critical Metals shares have gained momentum since the joint-venture announcement, reflecting investor optimism about the company’s ability to tap growing demand for non-Chinese rare-earth supply. Market participants will monitor progress on detailed engineering, financing milestones and the U.S. Export-Import Bank’s lending decision as primary indicators of whether the revised $20 price target is achievable.

Crédito da imagem: Insider Monkey