Corn Futures Retreat as Weak Cash Prices, Strong Dollar Weigh on Market

Corn futures declined on Wednesday, giving back 7 to 8 cents across most delivery months amid soft cash prices, lower crude oil values and a firmer U.S. dollar. The downturn pushed the CmdtyView national average cash corn price down 6 ¾ cents to $3.91 ¼ per bushel.

The sell-off was broad based. December 2025 corn settled at $4.29 ¾, 7 cents lower on the day. March 2026 futures fell 8 cents to $4.41 ½, while May 2026 closed at $4.49, a drop of 7 ½ cents. Trade desks cited outside market pressure as West Texas Intermediate crude oil lost $1.15 per barrel and the U.S. Dollar Index advanced 0.606 points, curbing export competitiveness for U.S. grain.

Energy data added a mixed tone. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that average ethanol production in the week ended November 14 increased by 16,000 barrels per day to 1.091 million bpd. Ethanol inventories rose 88,000 barrels to 22.307 million barrels, while average weekly ethanol exports slipped 12,000 bpd to 145,000 bpd. Refiner inputs of ethanol eased 7,000 bpd to 888,000 bpd, pointing to slightly weaker domestic blending demand.

Government trade figures released Wednesday highlighted robust shipments earlier in the marketing year. U.S. Census Bureau data showed August corn exports at 6.397 million metric tons (251.8 million bushels), the largest volume on record for that month and 25.42 percent above the same period a year earlier. August totals were also 2.76 percent higher than July.

By-product trade improved as well. Distillers grains exports reached 1.167 MMT in August, up 7.47 percent year on year. Ethanol exports set a monthly record at 188.77 million gallons, 23.76 percent above August 2024 and 14.84 percent above July levels. Additional context can be found in the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly petroleum report.

The market now turns its attention to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly Export Sales report due Thursday morning. Analysts surveyed expect corn sales for the week ended October 2 to range between 1.4 MMT and 2.5 MMT. Ahead of that release, global demand signals were mixed. A South Korean feed manufacturer booked 130,000 – 135,000 MT of optional-origin corn in a tender concluded Tuesday, with shipment windows open but origin yet to be confirmed.

In South America, Brazil’s grain exporters association ANEC lifted its November corn export projection to 6.36 MMT, an increase of 0.32 MMT from the prior week’s outlook. Strong Brazilian shipments continue to compete with U.S. offerings at a time when a stronger dollar already crimps U.S. price advantage.

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Positioning data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission underscored the bearish sentiment that prevailed in late September. For the week ended September 30, managed-money traders expanded their net short position in corn futures and options by 40,635 contracts, pushing the aggregate net short to 135,310 contracts. While the figures are more than six weeks old, they provide a window into the speculative mindset ahead of the current price slide.

Cash market weakness paralleled the futures pullback. The nearby cash bid tracked by CmdtyView slipped to $3.91 ¼ per bushel, reflecting elevator and river-terminal prices nationwide. Market participants noted that basis levels were mostly steady, but flat prices moved lower in tandem with futures.

Traders will monitor overnight weather forecasts, outside financial markets and export demand cues for direction ahead of Thursday’s session. With crude oil volatile and the dollar trending higher, any further deterioration in macroeconomic sentiment could continue to pressure grain values. Conversely, stronger-than-expected export sales or a shift in speculative positioning may provide near-term support.

Crédito da imagem: pixelmaniak via iStock