Market Opportunity and Patent Horizon
Company executives estimate that only 20 million to 50 million patients globally are currently treated with GLP-1 medicines, while the potential patient pool could reach 1 billion as physicians explore broader metabolic and cardiovascular applications. The momentum is occurring early in the patent lifecycle: tirzepatide, the active ingredient in both Mounjaro and Zepbound, is protected into the late 2030s, reducing the near-term threat of generic competition.
Pipeline and Upcoming Launches
A major catalyst scheduled for the second quarter is orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 therapy aimed at patients who prefer pills over injections. Management expects the pill to expand, rather than cannibalize, the existing franchise by reaching needle-averse consumers. International launches are slated for 2027, pending regulatory review.
Beyond metabolic disease, Eli Lilly is advancing Alzheimer’s disease assets, including recently authorized Kisunla, reinforcing a portfolio designed to deliver growth above the pharmaceutical industry average for years to come.
Supply Chain Expansion
Meeting escalating demand remains central to the strategy. The company produced 1.8 times more GLP-1 doses in the second half of 2025 compared with the prior-year period, exceeding internal goals. To sustain supply, Lilly last week announced plans to invest more than $3.5 billion in a new manufacturing complex in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley that will specialize in injectable medicines.
According to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s drug shortage database, several GLP-1 products industry-wide have faced intermittent shortages, underscoring the importance of added capacity.
Imagem: Internet
Pricing Dynamics
Management described GLP-1 demand as price-elastic, indicating that lower prices should widen adoption. Company modeling suggests adherence remains high once patients initiate therapy, creating a long runway for recurring revenue even if unit prices moderate over time.
Updated 2024 Outlook
For the full year, Eli Lilly now projects:
- Revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion, compared with the prior Street consensus of $77.62 billion.
- An adjusted operating margin (“performance margin”) of 46% to 47.5%, roughly in line with but slightly above analyst expectations.
- Adjusted earnings per share of $33.50 to $35.00, ahead of the $33.23 average forecast.
Investor Reaction
In response to the results and guidance, at least one research group lifted its 12-month price target on Eli Lilly stock to $1,250 from $1,100, while retaining a “hold” rating pending a potential pullback. The firm’s charitable trust currently maintains a 2.72% portfolio weighting, initiated in October 2021 and last added to in November 2024.
Competitive Landscape
The GLP-1 category remains highly competitive, with Novo Nordisk, Merck, Pfizer, Biogen and Eisai all developing or marketing agents that target metabolic or neurologic conditions. However, Lilly’s patent protection, manufacturing scale and diversified pipeline provide what analysts view as a favorable position heading into the next decade.
Crédito da imagem: Eli Lilly press handout
