The so-called “Coalition of the Willing” — a group of countries prepared to provide postwar peacekeeping forces and underwrite defense assurances — will attempt to clarify each nation’s prospective role. European diplomats say the bloc could deploy troops along a future line of control and coordinate arms transfers if a cease-fire takes hold. Russia has rejected any solution that includes non-Russian peacekeepers on Ukrainian soil, insisting that regional security is a bilateral matter.
Ukraine has signaled readiness to abandon its bid for NATO membership in exchange for credible protection against renewed aggression. Officials in Kyiv argue that only binding guarantees backed by the United States can deter Moscow from resuming military operations after an accord is signed. European capitals broadly agree but lack consensus on how such pledges would be enforced without U.S. leadership.
Concerns over Washington’s commitment predate the Maduro operation. President Donald Trump has alternated between urging a swift settlement and questioning the feasibility of restoring Ukraine’s full territorial integrity. European officials fear that the high-profile Venezuelan arrests could further dilute White House focus, prolonging negotiations or weakening American leverage over Russia.
Analysts observing the talks note a secondary risk: Moscow may read the U.S. seizure of a foreign head of state in its perceived sphere of influence as tacit approval of similar actions. Russian media regularly labels Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “criminal,” a narrative European officials worry could harden Kremlin attitudes during the Paris deliberations.
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Within the meeting, technical teams are reviewing potential demilitarized zones, timelines for heavy-weapons withdrawals and mechanisms for prisoner exchanges. Financing the reconstruction of war-damaged regions is likewise under discussion, with estimates running into tens of billions of dollars. Brussels is exploring blended funding models that pair European Union grants with loans from international financial institutions.
The gathering’s timetable is compressed. Delegates aim to finalize an updated draft before the end of the week, allowing principals to return for a formal signing session later in January if Moscow and Kyiv agree on core points. Failure to secure U.S. endorsement, however, would likely postpone any breakthrough and leave the status quo on the battlefield unchanged.
While attention remains fixed on security clauses, European policymakers caution that public fatigue and competing emergencies could erode diplomatic momentum. The emergence of a new crisis in Venezuela underscores how rapidly global priorities can shift. As one senior official noted, continual American participation is viewed in European capitals as essential to forging an accord resilient enough to survive beyond the immediate spotlight.
Further background on NATO’s role in collective defense can be found on the alliance’s official site, nato.int, which outlines procedures for security guarantees and peacekeeping mandates.
Crédito da imagem: Artur Widak | NurPhoto
