Lower demand typical of late autumn, the switch to cheaper winter-grade fuel blends, and an ample supply of refined products have amplified the effect of cheaper crude. Industry analysts anticipate that these conditions will persist, keeping downward pressure on retail prices through the remainder of the year.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at price-tracking firm GasBuddy, expects the national average to dip below $3 in the coming week. He notes that four service stations in Midwest City, Oklahoma, are already selling gasoline at $1.99 per gallon—the first instance of sustained sub-$2 pricing since 2021. De Haan projects that more outlets could approach that level as the Christmas holiday approaches, provided crude prices remain subdued.
Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at Gulf Oil, says the next 40 to 80 days typically deliver the “most inhospitable climate” for higher gasoline prices, a view reinforced by the current trajectory of petroleum futures. He adds that optimism surrounding the Ukraine-Russia negotiations has encouraged some investors to liquidate positions in crude, further easing market pressure.
On a state-by-state basis, the gap between the highest and lowest averages remains pronounced. California, long the most expensive gasoline market, continues to post prices well above $5 per gallon in certain metropolitan areas. By contrast, states such as Texas, Mississippi, and Oklahoma have plunged below the $3 threshold, reflecting proximity to major refining hubs and lower tax burdens.
[AAA’s daily fuel price tracker](https://gasprices.aaa.com/) confirms that more than half of all U.S. states now meet or undercut the $3 mark, a milestone not recorded since 2021. The agency expects an estimated 55 million Americans to travel 50 miles or more during the Thanksgiving period, meaning falling prices arrive at a pivotal moment for household budgets.
Crude’s influence on retail pricing remains central. Brent, the global benchmark, settled below $80 per barrel after Tuesday’s decline, while West Texas Intermediate hovered near $75. Both grades had traded above $95 as recently as September, but mounting concerns over demand growth and restored output from several producers have reversed that rally.
Market watchers will monitor the next meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), scheduled for early December. Any decision to alter production targets could affect the current downward momentum, though analysts caution that abundant inventories and modest demand may limit the impact of supply adjustments.
The Energy Information Administration reported last week that U.S. gasoline inventories rose by 1.8 million barrels, reinforcing signs of adequate supply. Refinery utilization held above 87 %, historically strong for this time of year and indicative of continued throughput despite lower margins.
For consumers, the critical question is whether the recent slide can be maintained. De Haan believes most drivers will see prices “among the lowest of the past four years” if crude remains near present levels. Kloza underscores the role of geopolitical developments, warning that any disruption to the tentative Ukraine-Russia discussions—or unexpected production cuts—could halt or reverse the trend.
Until such risks materialize, current indicators point to further easing. With winter-grade fuel firmly in place, extensive refinery maintenance largely complete, and global benchmark prices sliding, analysts concur that the traditional year-end slowdown in demand is likely to keep pump prices under pressure.
Crédito da imagem: AAA
