Industrial metals rally alongside record-setting gold and silver in 2025

Gold and silver grabbed headlines in 2025 by setting all-time price records, but the precious-metal surge was only part of a broader advance across the commodities complex. Copper, aluminum, steel and lithium all posted double-digit gains during the year, reflecting a combination of expanding demand from the artificial-intelligence build-out and the global shift toward low-carbon energy, together with supply constraints caused by accidents, policy moves and rising power costs.

Data compiled by Trading Economics show copper prices up more than 34% since January. Hot-rolled coil steel gained about 27%, aluminum advanced roughly 14% and lithium added close to 30%. While gold and silver were bid primarily as safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty, the industrial metals benefited from end-use demand in sectors ranging from data-center construction to electric-vehicle manufacturing.

The role each material plays in modern technology underscores the scale of that demand. Copper is central to electrical wiring, steel shapes the frames of buildings and machinery, aluminum dissipates heat in servers and power electronics, and lithium stores energy in rechargeable batteries. A recent International Energy Agency study estimates that clean-energy technologies are already responsible for more than half of global lithium consumption and for rising shares of copper and aluminum use.

Supply disruptions tighten copper market

Several unforeseen events curbed copper output in 2025. In May, flooding halted operations at Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo, one of the world’s largest copper producers. Later in the year, a tunnel collapse at a key Chilean site and a mudslide affecting Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia further reduced global supply. These incidents coincided with the accelerating build-out of data centers and grid upgrades, intensifying the imbalance between available metal and physical demand.

The combined impact of the outages tightened inventories on major exchanges and contributed to the 34% annual price increase. Market participants reported longer delivery times for concentrate and refined cathode, pushing consumers to secure material at higher spot premiums.

Lithium market reacts to Chinese suspension

Lithium prices spiked after the Chinese government temporarily suspended operations at one of the principal mining sites used by battery manufacturer CATL. The halt, enacted to review environmental compliance, removed significant tonnage from near-term supply chains. With electric-vehicle sales rising and stationary storage installations expanding, the supply interruption led to a 30% year-to-date price gain for the battery metal.

Producers in Australia and South America indicated plans to accelerate capacity additions, but most new volumes will not arrive until late 2026 or beyond, leaving buyers exposed to short-term volatility.

Imagem: financial planning 70

Energy prices constrain aluminum and steel output

Aluminum and steel markets faced a different set of challenges. Smelting and refining these metals require large amounts of energy, and power costs climbed as the war in Ukraine disrupted natural-gas flows and AI-driven data-center expansion increased electricity demand in several regions. Higher energy prices forced some European and Asian smelters to reduce operating rates, limiting supply and supporting aluminum’s 14% rise.

China, the world’s largest aluminum producer, approached its government-mandated capacity ceiling during the year, constraining fresh output despite domestic consumption growth. In steel, rising costs for coking coal and electricity raised production expenses, contributing to a 27% jump in hot-rolled coil prices.

Precious metals driven by safe-haven demand

Parallel to the industrial-metal rally, gold and silver benefited from a different dynamic. Investors turned to the precious metals as geopolitical tensions and uncertain economic data encouraged a flight to perceived safety. Prices for both metals set new records, capping one of their strongest years on record. Though not linked directly to the AI supply chain or energy transition, gold and silver’s performance provided an additional signal of the broader commodities uptrend in 2025.

Outlook shaped by demand and supply factors

Market analysts noted that demand related to emerging technologies and decarbonization initiatives continued to intersect with unpredictable supply conditions throughout the year. Environmental incidents at major mines, regulatory interventions and energy-market volatility combined to tighten inventories across several metals simultaneously. With infrastructure projects and advanced-manufacturing investments still in progress, participants remained attentive to further disruptions that could influence pricing into 2026.

Crédito da imagem: original source