Memories of the failed 1980 U.S. hostage-rescue attempt, known as Operation Eagle Claw, continue to inform both Iranian and American calculations. Analysts note that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) answers directly to Khamenei and possesses ballistic missiles, cyber-warfare units and naval forces capable of disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Those capabilities, they argue, raise the costs of any external intervention.
Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who studies Iran’s military posture, said a copy-and-paste version of the Venezuelan mission is unlikely. He pointed to Iran’s layered air-defense network, extensive intelligence services and stockpile of enriched uranium. “Any planner must consider what happens the day after,” he remarked in a recent analysis.
Speculation nevertheless spread rapidly after an Iranian state-television commentator claimed, without presenting evidence, that Washington and Israel had drafted plans last year to abduct Iranian leaders using a team composed partly of dual nationals. Though Iranian broadcasts often traffic in conspiracy theories, the charge was notable for its detail and timing.
Religious figures added to the unease. During Sunday evening prayers at Tehran University, influential cleric Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Javedan told worshippers that Khamenei’s life could be in jeopardy and urged them to pray for his protection. The comment echoed on social media alongside images of Venezuelan soldiers standing aside as U.S. troops escorted Maduro onto a military aircraft.
Outside Iran, officials and commentators drew their own parallels. Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid wrote online that Tehran “should take note” of Maduro’s fate, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu linked Iran’s internal protests to what he called a potential turning point for the Iranian people. In Washington, President Donald Trump warned that the United States would respond if Iranian security forces used lethal force against demonstrators.
On Capitol Hill, reactions split along partisan lines. Senator Lindsey Graham appeared on television wearing a hat reading “Make Iran Great Again,” later posting a photograph of himself with Trump signing a similar cap. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, who resigned from the House Republican Conference after clashing with the president, argued that removing Maduro positioned the United States to secure Venezuelan oil and “ensure stability” ahead of any future confrontation with Iran.
Even Saudi-owned media weighed in. In a column for the London-based daily Asharq Al-Awsat, editor-in-chief Ghassan Charbel wrote that delivering Maduro to a U.S. courtroom sent a stronger message to Tehran than the June airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
The IRGC has not announced heightened alerts, but ordinary Iranians voice concern. Saeed Seyyedi, a 57-year-old teacher in the capital, remarked that Washington tends to act when “oil, Israel and regional conflicts” intersect—an allusion to the Lebanon-based Hezbollah movement, Iran’s support for Russia in Ukraine and longstanding U.S. accusations of Hezbollah’s involvement in narcotics trafficking across Latin America. The group denies those allegations, while U.S. officials maintain that drug proceeds help finance its military wing.
Iran also retains a nuclear program that Western governments consider within reach of weapons-grade capability. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Tehran has enriched uranium to levels just short of the threshold needed for a bomb, although the government insists its activities are peaceful. The existence of that material complicates any discussion of a limited U.S. strike or commando raid, military analysts say.
For now, the protests at home, fueled by economic hardship and political frustration, continue. Demonstrators chant against corruption and rising prices, while security forces deploy water cannons and tear gas in major squares. Although the government accuses “foreign saboteurs” of stoking unrest, many Iranians watching images from Venezuela wonder less about outside agitation than about whether a high-profile arrest in Tehran could one day follow Maduro’s.
Crédito da imagem: Associated Press
