The comments come amid heightened tensions with Washington. On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump warned that the United States would “come to the rescue” if Iranian forces used lethal force against peaceful demonstrators. In response, senior Iranian officials threatened American troops stationed throughout the Middle East. The exchange escalated further Saturday when Trump announced that U.S. forces had captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, a close ally of Tehran. Iranian authorities have not publicly addressed that statement.
The Revolutionary Guard, along with its all-volunteer Basij branch, reports directly to the supreme leader and has a record of suppressing unrest, notably during the 2009 Green Movement and the 2022 protests. Hard-line figures inside the government are believed to be pressing for a forceful intervention, while President Masoud Pezeshkian has advocated for dialogue to address at least some of the protesters’ demands.
History suggests that large-scale crackdowns are possible. A 2019 increase in gasoline prices prompted demonstrations that watchdog groups say left more than 300 people dead. The 2022 protests over Amini’s death lasted several months, resulting in more than 500 fatalities and over 22,000 arrests, according to human-rights monitors.
Two fatalities reported overnight into Saturday highlighted the volatility of the current situation. In the holy city of Qom, approximately 130 kilometers south of Tehran, a grenade explosion killed a man whom authorities accused of planning an attack on civilians. Separate incidents in Harsin, a town in Kermanshah province about 370 kilometers southwest of the capital, left a Basij member dead after a combined gun and knife assault.
Economic pressures continue to feed public anger. Iran’s currency has fallen sharply on the open market, eroding purchasing power and sparking labor strikes, shop closures and street gatherings. Tehran has struggled to stabilize the economy since a brief war with Israel in June, when the United States also struck Iranian nuclear facilities.
In an apparent bid to ease sanctions and encourage negotiations, Iran recently announced it had halted uranium enrichment at all domestic sites. Talks, however, have not resumed, and both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have warned Tehran against reviving its atomic program.
Analysts note that Iran lacks a unified opposition movement capable of coordinating nationwide action. The U.S.-based Eurasia Group stated that the current protests appear spontaneous and that, despite economic distress, the government retains sufficient security resources to reassert control if it chooses a more aggressive course.
Human-rights organizations continue to monitor developments. The Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) reported that demonstrations have expanded beyond major cities, involving students, merchants and industrial workers. A Council on Foreign Relations overview notes that Iran’s layered security structure—military, paramilitary and intelligence units—gives the leadership multiple levers for response.
The international community is closely watching both Iran’s internal measures and possible U.S. actions. While President Trump’s statements have raised expectations among some protesters, it remains unclear what concrete steps Washington might take. Previous U.S. interventions in the region have often included sanctions, diplomatic pressure and limited military engagement rather than direct support on the ground.
For now, the demonstrations show no sign of abating. Economic hardship, accusations of corruption and demands for political accountability continue to draw crowds despite arrests and reports of violence. Whether authorities choose negotiation, intensified repression or a combination of both will likely determine the trajectory of the largest protest movement the country has faced in four years.
Crédito da imagem: Associated Press
