The prime minister’s popularity has risen even as her administration faces friction with Beijing. In November, Takaichi stated that a Chinese military move against Taiwan could prompt Japanese Self-Defense Forces involvement. Beijing criticized the remarks, leading to a diplomatic standoff that has yet to be resolved.
If the vote occurs in February, it would come less than four months into Takaichi’s premiership. It would also mark the first national election fought by the LDP alongside its new junior partner, the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), which joined the ruling bloc after the 2025 leadership race. Reuters reported that JIP leader Hirofumi Yoshimura spoke with Takaichi on Monday and indicated that her thinking on election timing has entered a “new stage.”
Combined, the LDP and JIP hold 230 of the Lower House’s 465 seats. The coalition’s grip on the chamber is reinforced by support from three independents, giving it a narrow majority. However, in the House of Councillors the alliance controls only 119 of 250 seats, limiting its ability to advance key legislation without cross-party support.
Opposition groups believe the planned snap election could provide an opening to unseat the government. Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) leader Yoshihiko Noda told NHK over the weekend that his party aims to topple the LDP-led coalition. He also left the door open to cooperating with Komeito, the LDP’s former partner.
The CDP currently holds 148 seats in the Lower House, while Komeito commands 24. Komeito withdrew from the governing alliance during Takaichi’s leadership bid in October 2025, citing allegations of illegal political financing within the LDP. The two parties had worked together in government since 1999, and any move to reunite could significantly alter electoral math in multiple districts.
The potential vote comes against a backdrop of economic headwinds. The yen touched 158.19 against the U.S. dollar on Monday, its weakest level in a year, adding to import costs and fueling price pressures. Consumer inflation has exceeded the Bank of Japan’s 2 percent target for 44 straight months, according to official central bank data. Revised government figures show gross domestic product contracted 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter in the July–September period, equal to an annualized decline of 2.3 percent.
Despite the adverse economic indicators, analysts note that the LDP has historically timed elections to coincide with peaks in public support. Party strategists are betting that Takaichi’s strong personal popularity will outweigh concerns about the weak yen, inflation and slowing growth. By calling a vote now, the coalition hopes to secure a more comfortable Lower House majority and bolster its legislative agenda before mid-year budget negotiations.
Under Japan’s constitution, the prime minister holds the authority to dissolve the Lower House at will. Once the Diet is dissolved, campaigning typically begins within days, and parties scramble to finalize candidate lists, craft manifestos and allocate resources to key constituencies. The LDP and JIP are expected to focus on national security, energy policy and measures to offset the rising cost of living, while opposition parties are likely to emphasize household incomes, corporate governance and political ethics.
Should Komeito decide to ally with the CDP, the distribution of votes in urban swing districts could tighten considerably, complicating the LDP’s path to an enlarged majority. For now, however, the ruling bloc is moving ahead with preparations under the assumption that the election will be fought mainly between the current coalition and a fragmented opposition.
While no formal announcement has been made, multiple media outlets report that Takaichi may schedule the dissolution shortly after the ordinary Diet session convenes later this month. Observers are watching for any cabinet reshuffle or policy pledges that could be used to frame the forthcoming campaign.
If the timeline holds, official campaigning would begin in early February, with voting day tentatively set for late February or early March. Final details depend on the exact timing of the dissolution decree and approval from the cabinet, but local election boards have already been instructed to secure venues, recruit staff and issue ballots.
Market participants and foreign governments are monitoring the situation closely, as a decisive victory could strengthen Takaichi’s mandate on security and economic policy, while a setback could reopen coalition negotiations and slow legislative activity. Until a formal dissolution is declared, however, the precise electoral calendar remains provisional.
Crédito da imagem: Kyodo via Reuters
