Japan’s Ruling Coalition on Track for Two-Thirds Majority in Key Lower House Vote, NHK Projects

Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior ally, the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), are poised to capture enough seats in the House of Representatives to control more than two-thirds of the 465-member chamber, according to projections released by public broadcaster NHK following Sunday’s national election.

NHK’s forecast places the LDP at 274 to 328 seats, while the JIP is expected to secure 28 to 38 seats. A combined total of 310 seats is required for a two-thirds supermajority, a threshold that would allow the coalition to overturn Upper House objections and pass legislation without support from other parties. The Upper House remains outside LDP control, making the Lower House count critical for the government’s policy agenda.

Largest Opposition Bloc Faces Sharp Decline

The Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA) — formed last year through the merger of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito, the LDP’s former coalition partner — is projected to fall dramatically. NHK expects the CRA to win between 37 and 91 seats, roughly half of the 172 seats its two predecessor parties held before the merger. The forecast aligns with pre-election polling published by Nikkei and Asahi Shimbun, both of which had signaled a potential surge for the LDP-JIP partnership and steep losses for the opposition.

Prior to the dissolution of parliament, the LDP and JIP together controlled 230 seats. With the backing of three independent lawmakers, the administration had maintained a slim single-seat majority. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who took office last October as Japan’s first female leader, dissolved the Lower House on 23 January. Analysts viewed the early dissolution as a strategic attempt to leverage her still-high approval ratings and solidify the coalition’s standing before economic headwinds could erode public support.

Voter Turnout Despite Severe Winter Weather

Polling stations in several prefectures reported heavy snowfall on election day, yet voters braved the conditions to cast ballots. Vote counting continued through the evening in major urban centers such as Osaka, where election officials processed ballots under heightened media attention.

Public Support for Takaichi Remains Strong

Surveys aggregated by Nippon.com in the weeks leading up to the vote indicated that Prime Minister Takaichi’s popularity had edged lower but remained solid. In January, one domestic poll showed approval topping 70 percent, down slightly from three similar readings in December. Six separate January polls placed her support in the 60 percent range, up from four in the prior month. Although the prime minister’s ratings slipped marginally, they remained well above the levels recorded for her immediate predecessors.

Economic Backdrop: Persistent Inflation and a Weak Yen

The election unfolded against a backdrop of prolonged inflationary pressure and currency volatility. Consumer price inflation has exceeded the Bank of Japan’s 2 percent target for 45 consecutive months. The most recent nationwide reading stood at 2.1 percent, while full-year inflation for 2025 reached 3.2 percent. Real wages fell year-on-year for the 11th straight month in December and have declined on an annual basis every year since 2022.

The Japanese yen continued to soften at the start of 2026, briefly approaching ¥160 to the U.S. dollar. A weaker yen boosts export revenues but also raises the cost of imported goods, intensifying price pressures for households. The currency’s trajectory has become a focal point for policymakers and market participants alike, with the International Monetary Fund recently warning that prolonged currency weakness could complicate Japan’s inflation-control efforts.

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Government Spending Plans and Policy Outlook

In December, Takaichi’s cabinet unveiled a record ¥117 trillion (US$783 billion) national budget for the fiscal year beginning 1 April. The plan includes increased allocations for defense, technology investment and social programs. It follows a ¥20 trillion (US$135 billion) stimulus package announced last autumn to cushion households from rising living expenses.

Economic commentator Jesper Koll noted in a post-election analysis that the government intends to step up so-called “state-directed initiatives” designed to cultivate domestic “national champions” in strategic industries. He highlighted an existing US$550 billion U.S.–Japan investment framework that Tokyo aims to leverage to push corporate leaders toward larger-scale mergers and acquisitions, enhancing global competitiveness and national security.

Regional Tensions Remain Elevated

Security considerations also loomed over the campaign. Relations with Beijing have been strained by maritime disputes in the East China Sea and concerns about Taiwan’s stability. Both major parties pledged to reinforce Japan’s defense capabilities, although they differ on spending priorities and approaches to constitutional revision.

Path Forward in Parliament

If final results mirror NHK’s projection, the LDP-JIP coalition will hold the capacity to override vetoes in the Diet’s upper chamber and advance legislation with limited opposition input. Constitutional amendments, however, would still require supermajority support in both houses followed by a national referendum.

Official tallies are expected within days, but the preliminary figures already point to a decisive mandate for the ruling coalition. For Prime Minister Takaichi, a supermajority would underpin her administration for the next two to three years, a time frame seen by observers as crucial for addressing wage stagnation, revitalizing economic growth and managing geopolitical risks in the Indo-Pacific.

Crédito da imagem: Toru Hanai/Bloomberg via Getty Images