2. Insufficient Government Alignment on China Policy
Bear argument: Some critics say chief executive Jensen Huang lacks deep ties to U.S. policymakers and therefore cannot secure the export licenses necessary to sell advanced chips to Chinese customers. The concern is that China may accelerate domestic development, diminishing Nvidia’s long-term sales opportunities in the region.
Counterpoints: The U.S. government permits Nvidia to supply less-advanced processors to China under existing export-control rules and, in March, signaled conditional approval for shipments of the higher-performance H200 model to designated buyers. Huang has publicly maintained that a complete cutoff could encourage the emergence of competing Chinese architectures, aligning his position with concerns voiced in Washington about preserving U.S. technological leadership.
3. Potential Delay of the Vera Rubin Platform
Bear argument: Detractors contend that Nvidia may miss its target of launching Vera Rubin in the second half of 2026, prompting customers to adopt rival solutions.
Counterpoints: Nvidia has released successive generations on schedules that have largely aligned with management guidance. Industry supply-chain sources report that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) has reserved advanced production capacity for Nvidia’s roadmap, suggesting the timeline remains intact. Market observers note that sustained demand for existing platforms would cushion revenue in the event of moderate slippage.
4. Power Consumption and Thermal Constraints
Bear argument: High power requirements for data-center GPUs could limit deployment until new electrical infrastructure is in place, and some reports have claimed recent Nvidia chips overheat in custom server designs. Critics add that quantum computing or alternative architectures could soon offer more energy-efficient options.
Imagem: Internet
Counterpoints: Data-center operators continue to order large quantities of Nvidia’s Blackwell and Hopper GPUs despite elevated power budgets. According to a February report from Reuters, several hyperscale providers have budgeted multiyear capital expenditures to expand power capacity specifically for Nvidia hardware. The company also collaborates with system integrators to refine cooling and rack designs, and aims to improve performance per watt in each product generation.
5. Dependence on OpenAI’s Capital-Raising Plans
Bear argument: Nvidia’s future sales are viewed as closely tied to OpenAI, which reportedly requires roughly $100 billion to fund additional data centers. Skeptics warn that, without timely financing, hundreds of thousands of Nvidia chips could remain idle and weigh on earnings.
Counterpoints: While OpenAI represents a sizeable buyer, demand for AI infrastructure is widely dispersed across cloud providers, software vendors and enterprise users. Research firms tracking purchase orders report that Nvidia’s backlog extends beyond any single customer. Furthermore, should OpenAI achieve its targeted valuation, industry projections indicate that most of the resulting data-center build-out would use Nvidia GPUs complemented by a smaller share of competing accelerators.
Additional Geopolitical Risk
Some investors also point to the possibility of geopolitical tension disrupting access to TSMC, Nvidia’s primary manufacturing partner in Taiwan. The scenario, though acknowledged by analysts, is not unique to Nvidia; numerous global semiconductor firms rely on the Taiwanese foundry for advanced nodes.
For now, the five bearish narratives continue to circulate in financial markets, but each faces empirical challenges from current market share figures, government licensing decisions, product-development timelines, infrastructure spending plans and diversified customer demand.
Crédito da imagem: Getty Images
