Wave of Construction Reshapes the Market
More than 600,000 new multifamily units were completed nationwide in 2024, the largest annual total since the 1980s, according to Apartment List. The bulk of those deliveries are large, professionally managed buildings that now face heightened competition for tenants. Brokers report longer marketing times, multiple price adjustments and a growing number of concessions, such as free months of rent or reduced security deposits.
Michelle Griffith, a luxury leasing specialist at Douglas Elliman, says that unless an unexpected economic shock materializes, early 2026 “is shaping up” to be one of the most renter-friendly periods of the past decade. Vacancies remain elevated, and another wave of complexes is scheduled to open in 2025, positioning renters to negotiate favorable terms.
Sun Belt and Interior West Lead Declines
Rental conditions vary considerably by location, but the sharpest price cuts are concentrated in metros that experienced aggressive construction pipelines during and after the pandemic-era housing boom. Using Realtor.com data for the 50 largest markets, the following areas recorded the steepest annual drops in median asking rent in November:
- Austin–Round Rock–San Marcos, Texas: –6.6%
- Denver–Aurora–Centennial, Colorado: –4.8%
- Birmingham, Alabama: –4.6%
- Jacksonville, Florida: –4.2%
- Phoenix–Mesa–Chandler, Arizona: –4.0%
- San Diego–Chula Vista–Carlsbad, California: –3.5%
- Las Vegas–Henderson–North Las Vegas, Nevada: –3.0%
- Houston–Pasadena–The Woodlands, Texas: –2.7%
- Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach, Florida: –2.7%
- San Antonio–New Braunfels, Texas: –2.7%
Austin’s 6.6% decline is the steepest among major metros, reflecting years of outsized development that outpaced local demand. In several other Sun Belt hubs, construction cranes are still visible, indicating that additional inventory will continue to arrive over the next 12 to 18 months.
Earlier Surge Sets the Stage for Current Relief
The present pullback follows an extraordinary run-up earlier in the decade, when rents for one- and two-bedroom units were increasing more than 12% annually in mid-2021 and mid-2022, Realtor.com figures show. That rapid escalation was fueled by remote-work migration, limited supply and historically low mortgage rates that kept would-be homeowners in the rental pool.
Imagem: Getty
The balance shifted in early 2023 as construction that began during the boom reached completion. The resulting oversupply pushed rent growth into negative territory and allowed vacancy rates to climb. The U.S. Census Bureau’s New Residential Construction reports indicate that multifamily housing starts remain elevated compared with pre-pandemic norms, suggesting continued pressure on landlords.
Outlook and Strategies for Tenants
Apartment List foresees muted or slightly negative rent growth through at least the first quarter of 2026, with prices expected to flatten rather than rebound sharply once supply and demand realign. Markets with slower construction pipelines or strong job growth could stabilize sooner, but analysts see limited upside nationally in the near term.
Brokers advise prospective tenants to treat advertised prices as opening bids rather than fixed figures. Griffith notes that property owners are increasingly open to shorter leases, minor rent reductions or upfront incentives to secure occupancy. Signing during late winter or early spring — when leasing traffic is typically light and new buildings are eager to fill units — can lock in lower costs before peak moving season.
While median rents remain well above pre-2020 levels, the recent slide has provided rare negotiating leverage for renters across a wide range of income brackets. If construction timelines stay on track and the broader economy avoids a severe downturn, the coming two years are expected to offer the most favorable conditions tenants have encountered in roughly a decade.
Crédito da imagem: Realtor.com
