U.S. Retailers Post Mixed Early Holiday Numbers, Signaling Steady but Uneven Consumer Spending

Early updates from several U.S. retailers suggest the 2025 holiday shopping period delivered respectable, though largely unremarkable, growth. Companies presenting preliminary figures on Monday reported results ranging from robust gains to downward revisions, underscoring uneven demand at the close of a year marked by cautious consumers and widespread promotions.

Broad picture: modest momentum, few standouts

The announcements, released ahead of the ICR investor conference in Orlando, pointed to solid sales without the broad surge some investors had hoped to see. Expectations heading into the season were tempered by inflation and elevated discounting. The National Retail Federation had projected November–December U.S. retail sales to climb between 3.7% and 4.2% year over year, a pace in line with historical averages but muted after adjusting for higher prices.

Lululemon stays at the top end of guidance

Lululemon Athletica said revenue for its fiscal fourth quarter, which includes most of the holiday period, is likely to reach roughly $3.60 billion, with earnings near $4.76 per share. Both estimates align with the upper limit of guidance issued in December. The athletic-apparel company, preparing for a chief-executive transition and contending with a proxy fight from its founder, kept earlier projections for gross margin, tax rate and operating expenses intact. Shares traded about 1 percent higher on the news.

During the prior quarter, executives acknowledged heavier markdowns—a departure from Lululemon’s typical limited-discount strategy—were used to clear aging inventory. Those price cuts, alongside higher tariffs, compressed margins by 2.9 percentage points.

Abercrombie trims outlook despite “record” sales

Abercrombie & Fitch reported quarter-to-date revenue it described as record, yet the apparel retailer nonetheless reduced the high end of its full-year forecasts. Management now expects annual sales to grow at least 6 percent, down from a 6 to 7 percent range, and projects operating margin of about 13 percent versus a previous view of 13 to 13.5 percent. Earnings per share are anticipated between $10.30 and $10.40, a slight narrowing of prior guidance. The stock fell more than 18 percent in morning trading.

Mixed signals from footwear and off-price chains

Birkenstock, which went public in 2024, projected an 11 percent year-over-year rise in sales to €402 million ($470 million) for the quarter ended Dec. 31. The German sandal maker had not given specific holiday guidance last year. Shares were up roughly 2 percent after the update.

Thrift-store operator Savers Value Village recorded an 8.4 percent increase in fiscal fourth-quarter sales, with comparable sales up 5.4 percent after excluding an extra week in last year’s calendar. Despite the gain, the company reaffirmed rather than raised its outlook for fiscal 2025 adjusted net income and EBITDA. Shares were marginally higher in pre-market dealings.

Imagem: financial planning 8

Bright spots: American Eagle and Five Below outpace projections

American Eagle Outfitters delivered one of the morning’s stronger reports. Quarter-to-date comparable sales through Jan. 3 rose by high single digits, driven by a low-single-digit gain at the flagship American Eagle brand and low-twenties growth at lingerie line Aerie. The retailer now expects fourth-quarter operating income between $167 million and $170 million, up from $155 million to $160 million. Even so, the share price slid 9 percent, suggesting investors had priced in even higher expectations.

Discount chain Five Below posted the sharpest holiday acceleration among the companies reporting. Through Jan. 3, total sales advanced 23.2 percent and comparable sales rose 14.5 percent. Management lifted fourth-quarter revenue guidance to about $1.71 billion, up from a prior $1.58 to $1.61 billion range, and almost doubled its comparable-sales outlook to 14 percent. Earnings-per-share projections were raised to $3.93–$3.98, compared with $3.34–$3.52 previously. Despite the upbeat figures, the stock edged down about 1 percent in morning trade.

Analyst view: steady but unspectacular holiday season

The range of outcomes reinforces expectations of a holiday period marked by selective strength rather than industry-wide acceleration. Analysts tracking credit-card data and in-store foot traffic had forecast sturdy results for retailers offering value, deep assortments or compelling product launches, while companies leaning on premium pricing or limited promotions were considered more vulnerable to discretionary pullbacks.

While final tallies will arrive when companies report full quarterly results in the coming weeks, Monday’s disclosures suggest overall consumer spending remained resilient but did not surge beyond earlier forecasts. With inflation moderating yet still above pre-pandemic levels, retailers entering 2026 may continue navigating a landscape where targeted promotions and clear merchandising strategies are essential to maintaining momentum.

Crédito da imagem: Spencer Platt | Getty Images