Looking ahead to 2026, some portfolio managers anticipate that commodity leadership could migrate away from defensive precious metals toward more cyclical raw materials. They contend that, if economic growth accelerates in several key regions next year, investors may favor energy and industrial metals tied directly to manufacturing activity rather than traditional safe havens such as gold and silver.
Gold futures participated in Tuesday’s recovery, edging 1.2% higher to $4,394.30 an ounce. Copper, widely viewed as a bellwether for global growth, climbed 1.9% to $5.673 an ounce, adding to gains that have paralleled renewed optimism about infrastructure spending and the electrification of transportation.
The supply outlook has added another layer of support for silver. China plans to impose export restrictions on the metal starting January 1, a move that could tighten global availability. Over the weekend, Tesla chief executive Elon Musk commented that the forthcoming rules were “not good,” drawing attention to silver’s role in high-growth industries such as solar panels, data centers and electric vehicles. Market participants suggested the remarks contributed to heightened interest in the metal as trading resumed on Monday.
Industrial demand remains a critical piece of the silver narrative. The metal is a key component in photovoltaic cells used for solar power generation, circuitry within consumer electronics and the electrical systems of battery-powered vehicles. As governments worldwide pursue decarbonization goals, manufacturers have ramped up procurement to secure adequate supplies, intensifying competition with investors who view silver as a store of value.
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Inflation dynamics have also helped propel precious-metal prices. Although headline inflation has moderated from the multi-decade highs reached in 2023, core readings in several advanced economies remain above target. Many investors regard silver and gold as potential hedges against a renewed uptick in consumer-price growth. Expectations that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will begin cutting interest rates in 2025 have reinforced the appeal of non-yielding assets, diminishing the opportunity cost of holding bullion.
Market structure is another factor amplifying price swings. Exchange-traded products backed by physical silver have attracted substantial inflows this year, creating an additional layer of demand that can accelerate rallies and exacerbate declines. According to data compiled by the London Bullion Market Association, global silver holdings in exchange-traded funds reached a record high in late December, exceeding three billion ounces for the first time.
While the near-term outlook remains uncertain, many traders expect continued volatility as the market digests evolving macroeconomic signals, shifts in monetary policy expectations and further clarity on Chinese export guidelines. With silver prices still near historical peaks and trading volumes elevated, participants are bracing for additional large intraday moves similar to those seen at the start of the week.
Crédito da imagem: Angelika Warmuth | Reuters
