Soybean Futures Climb After USDA Lowers Yield Estimate and Exporters Secure Oil Sale

Soybean prices advanced across the board on Friday, buoyed by smaller U.S. yield projections and a fresh export sale of soybean oil to South Korea. Front-month soybean contracts closed 12 to 13 cents higher, while November futures finished the session up 19 ¼ cents from the previous Friday. The national average cash price rose 13 cents to $9.70 ¼ per bushel.

Futures Rally Extends to Meal and Oil

Soymeal futures added 60 cents to $1.50 per ton on the day, with the October contract posting a $7.10 gain for the week. Soybean oil futures ended Friday 49 to 59 points higher; the October contract advanced 86 points over the five-day span. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange reported four September soymeal deliveries and two soybean-oil deliveries as the September contracts expired.

Additional support came from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), which confirmed a private sale of 22,000 metric tons of soybean oil to South Korea for shipment in the 2025/26 marketing year. The purchase signals continued overseas demand for U.S. oilseed products even as global supplies remain adequate. Details of the transaction were published in the USDA’s daily export reporting system, accessible via the agency’s official website.

USDA Cuts Yield, Raises Production

The USDA’s monthly Crop Production report trimmed the 2025 U.S. soybean yield forecast by 0.1 bushel per acre to 53.5 bpa, a figure that still exceeded most pre-report estimates. Planted and harvested acreage estimates were each increased by 210,000 acres to 81.135 million acres, resulting in an 8-million-bushel boost to projected output, now pegged at 4.3 billion bushels. Analysts had anticipated a 21-million-bushel decline.

Old-crop ending stocks were left unchanged at 330 million bushels. For the 2024/25 marketing year, ending stocks are forecast at 300 million bushels, up 10 million from the previous outlook. The agency lowered export expectations by 20 million bushels but lifted domestic crush projections by 15 million bushels, partially offsetting the export reduction.

Globally, old-crop soybean stocks declined 1.61 million metric tons to 123.58 MMT, primarily because of a downward revision to Argentine inventories. New-crop world carryout slipped 0.91 MMT to 123.99 MMT.

Managed Money Turns Net Short

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed-money firms holding a net short position of 14,714 soybean contracts as of Tuesday, a swing of 26,678 contracts to the short side in one week. The shift indicates that speculative traders became more bearish even as futures prices moved higher.

Commercial participants and hedgers, meanwhile, modestly trimmed their overall short exposure. Analysts will scrutinize next week’s data to gauge whether Friday’s price strength encouraged money managers to cover shorts or initiate new longs.

Key Price Levels

At Friday’s close, benchmark contracts posted the following settlements:

• Sep 2025 Soybeans: $10.25 ¾ per bushel, up 20 ¼ cents
• Nov 2025 Soybeans: $10.46 ¼, up 12 ¾ cents
• Jan 2026 Soybeans: $10.65 ¼, up 12 ¾ cents
• Nearby Cash: $9.70 ¼, up 13 cents

Industry Awaits NOPA Crush Figures

The next significant data point for oilseed markets arrives Monday, when the National Oilseed Processors Association releases its August crush report. Traders expect member plants to have processed 182.857 million bushels, a figure that, if realized, would offer additional insight into domestic demand trends.

With harvest activity ramping up and export programs underway, market participants will monitor weather conditions, logistical developments, and any further adjustments to supply-and-demand tables. Volatility may persist as the balance between record production and uncertain demand continues to evolve.

See our latest Finance News Update , visit our Finance News Update section.

Finance News Update

Image credit: Pixabay