Voter sentiment and congressional pushback
Recent polling paints a different picture among voters. A January survey conducted by The New York Times and Siena University found 54 percent of respondents opposed to Trump’s tariff strategy. CNBC consumer data released this month also indicate many households feel squeezed by higher prices.
Political pressure is building inside the Capitol. Several Republican lawmakers joined Democrats on Tuesday to defeat a procedural rule that would have blocked the House from challenging tariff orders issued by the former president. The chamber is scheduled to vote Wednesday on a resolution from Rep. Gregory Meeks, D-N.Y., aimed at reversing duties placed on Canadian goods.
States with the largest tariff tabs
California: $38 billion
Texas: $21 billion
Michigan: $13 billion
Georgia: $12 billion
Illinois: $9.6 billion
Ohio: $6.5 billion
Pennsylvania: $6.3 billion
South Carolina: $5.2 billion
North Carolina: $5 billion
Kentucky: $4 billion
Collectively, these ten states account for more than half of all tariff payments since March 2025, and many contain swing districts that could determine which party controls Congress next year.
Small businesses report mounting costs
Main Street firms are voicing frustration through a new video campaign, “Small Businesses Against Tariffs,” that launched Wednesday. Participants argue that import duties raise everyday operating expenses and are ultimately passed along to consumers.
Ohio farmer Chris Gibbs said steeper prices for steel, aluminum and lumber have driven up the cost of constructing barns and repairing equipment. At the same time, he contends the trade dispute has limited overseas demand for his corn and soybeans. “We became an unreliable supplier,” Gibbs said, noting that Brazil has overtaken the United States as China’s principal soybean source.
The Port of Long Beach corroborates the shift. Chief Executive Noel Hacegaba reported a 95 percent year-over-year decline in soybean exports to China, reflecting Beijing’s pivot to South American suppliers.
In Saline, Michigan, Hiblow USA — a 10-person manufacturer of air pumps for residential wastewater systems — faced a $1.2 million tariff bill last year. President Tim Smith suspended an expansion that would have added several jobs, citing uncertainty about how long the duties will remain. The company, which imports components from the Philippines, has renewed its customs surety bond multiple times as tariff liabilities climbed, a process that delayed the release of some shipments.
Imagem: Internet
Retailers are also feeling the pinch. Jennifer Bergman closed West Side Kids, a Manhattan toy store founded by her mother 44 years ago, after vendors repeatedly raised prices to offset Chinese import duties. Scooters that once retailed for under $200 disappeared from her shelves, and revenue fell to a level that could no longer cover rent.
Volatile coffee duties add to pricing strains
Tariff policy has whipsawed the coffee market. Initial duties ranging from 19 percent to 50 percent on beans from Brazil, Vietnam, India and Indonesia drove up costs for Tempe, Arizona-based Brick Road Coffee, which purchases roughly 4,000 pounds of green coffee each month. Although a November 2025 executive order removed most of those levies, co-founder Gabe Hagen still holds inventory imported at the higher rates. Wholesale clients who previously paid $10 per pound now face prices near $13.50, and Hagen has postponed store expansion to conserve cash.
Foot traffic at the café remains steady, but average sales per customer have fallen as patrons skip pastries and other add-ons. “Consumers are tightening their wallets,” Hagen said.
Economists warn of profit squeeze
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, said the prior spike in inflation left businesses with what he called “PTSD” that resurfaces whenever costs rise again. Companies unable to pass higher input expenses to shoppers, he added, absorb the difference through thinner profit margins.
Political stakes ahead
With primary season days away and affordability dominating voter concerns, tariff policy has become a central campaign issue. Trade Partnership Worldwide Executive Director Dan Anthony estimated that scrapping recent duties could remove “tens of billions” in taxes in electorally critical states. While the Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling on the legality of several Trump-era tariffs on Feb. 20, small-business owners such as Smith are not counting on refunds, anticipating additional rounds of duties even if the existing measures are struck down.
The escalating financial impact highlighted in the Census data underscores why both parties are recalibrating their economic messages as they enter the 2026 campaign. Whether voters attribute higher living costs to tariffs, broader inflationary trends or other factors may help determine control of Congress in November.
Context on tariff revenue trends can be found in historical releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, which tracks monthly customs collections.
Crédito da imagem: Bloomberg/Getty Images
