Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Could Trigger Pre-Lunar New Year Import Rush

The U.S. freight industry is bracing for a U.S. Supreme Court decision that could invalidate a wide range of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) during former President Donald Trump’s administration. While importers are focused on the possibility of refunds, logistics specialists warn that the ruling could immediately alter shipping volumes to the United States as businesses race to secure inventory ahead of China’s Lunar New Year factory shutdown.

On Wednesday the Court released three opinions, but the high-profile tariffs case was not among them. A ruling is expected in the coming weeks. If the justices determine that the IEEPA-based levies were unlawful, the Court of International Trade would retain jurisdiction over refund claims for two years and could compel U.S. Customs and Border Protection to reimburse duties already paid. Administration officials have indicated that, if struck down, a new package of tariffs drafted under different legal authorities is ready for swift implementation.

Industry analysts say the possibility of temporary relief is enough to influence procurement strategies. Many companies reduced inventories in 2025 to conserve cash, leading to what market participants describe as a rate recession for ocean freight. Global container data tracked by Sonar show that volumes bound for U.S. ports fell 14% year over year. China was the hardest hit: Project44 estimates U.S. imports from the country dropped 28% in 2025, while U.S. exports to China declined 38%. Despite those bilateral declines, Beijing posted a record US$1.2 trillion trade surplus with the world.

The timing of any Supreme Court ruling is critical. Chinese factories will close from 17 February to 3 March for Lunar New Year, and production typically slows three to four weeks earlier as workers begin traveling home. To receive spring and summer merchandise on schedule, importers usually place orders by late December or early January. An unexpected window without the current tariff burden could push those orders higher.

ITS Logistics Vice President of Global Supply Chain Paul Brashier notes that if the IEEPA duties disappear, items recently sourced from higher-tariff jurisdictions would be the first to see a rebound. Seko Logistics executives add that three factors would accelerate bookings: the short interval before Lunar New Year, the likelihood that replacement tariffs will carry their own lead times, and anticipated cash infusions from duty refunds.

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are expected to react fastest. According to Freightos Chief Marketing Officer Eytan Buchman, SMEs operate with leaner staffs and less forecasting flexibility than large multinationals, making any clarity on cost structures especially valuable. An analysis of five years of Lunar New Year data by Freightos indicates that activity among smaller importers normally spikes three to four weeks ahead of the holiday, suggesting that businesses would have until roughly 20 January to finalize shipments if the tariffs are struck down.

A recent Freightos poll underscores a potential shift in sourcing strategies. Respondents said tariff relief would prompt them to expand procurement to additional low-cost regions, though some would consider moving production back to China if price advantages returned. The results align with a CNBC Supply Chain survey conducted after an October trade truce, which found no immediate surge in orders despite expectations of renewed demand.

Imagem: Internet

Warehouse inventory data compiled in the Logistics Managers’ Index illustrate just how lean the current environment is: stock levels contracted 17.4% month over month following the holiday season. That drawdown suggests capacity for a near-term restocking wave, though not everyone in the sector expects a dramatic change.

IMC Logistics reports sustained import strength from Asia to U.S. West Coast gateways and does not foresee a significant rise or fall tied to the Court’s decision. Chief Commercial Officer Brian Kobza points out that production lead times and ocean transit can delay observable impacts by up to 45 days. OL USA Chief Executive Alan Baer offers a similar assessment, predicting only a modest uptick should the tariffs be overturned.

Even so, the prospect of duty refunds represents a rare injection of liquidity for import-heavy firms that endured higher costs throughout 2025. The unpredictability of trade policy—coupled with the seasonal constraints of Lunar New Year—has left many supply chain managers monitoring the Supreme Court docket closely. More information on upcoming opinions can be found on the Court’s official calendar.

Should the justices invalidate the tariffs, importers will have a narrow window to place orders before any replacement measures take hold, potentially creating a brief surge in container volumes as companies seek to “beat the clock.” If the duties are upheld, businesses anticipate maintaining cautious inventory strategies in the face of ongoing trade uncertainty.

Crédito da imagem: Bloomberg