Why leather is especially exposed
John Ricco of the Yale Budget Lab points to two main factors. First, many of the steepest tariff rates target countries that dominate U.S. leather supply chains. Second, the United States imports far more leather goods than it manufactures. In 2023, the nation bought $1.37 billion in leather apparel while exporting just $92.7 million, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. China alone accounted for roughly one-third of all leather items entering the country.
Brands are already absorbing sizable charges. Tapestry, parent of Coach and Kate Spade, told investors in August that tariff-related costs could reach $160 million and warned of larger-than-expected profit headwinds.
The global journey of a boot
A typical pair of Twisted X boots starts as a raw, salted cowhide from a U.S. ranch. The hide is shipped—often to Asia—for tanning. Roughly half of Twisted X’s hides are processed in China, down from 90 percent in 2017. Once tanned, the leather is forwarded to factories in China, Vietnam, Mexico or India for cutting and stitching before the finished product returns to the United States.
That model kept costs low until the new duties took effect. “When tariffs happened, everything stopped,” said Kerry Brozyna, president of the Leather and Hide Council of America. Chinese tanneries paused incoming shipments, concerned that the additional duties would make finished goods unsellable. Similar slowdowns hit facilities in Vietnam and Mexico, while a sudden 50 percent tariff on many Indian leather exports in August added another layer of expense.
By late summer, nearly every company in the sector was paying more at each stage of production. Twisted X ultimately raised retail prices by 1 percent to 3 percent in 2025, a modest figure that executives attribute to rapid supply-chain adjustments. Competitors, they noted, implemented larger increases.
Luxury and mass-market products both affected
Consumers are already seeing the impact. Chanel’s Classic Flap handbag is roughly 5 percent more expensive than a year ago after another round of spring price hikes. Analysts expect leather footwear and accessory prices to climb about 22 percent over the next 12 to 24 months and an additional 7 percent longer term as cost pressures filter through inventories.
Executives at Steve Madden described the third quarter of 2025 as “challenging,” attributing weaker performance largely to the new tariff regime. Ricco predicts that 2026 will force difficult decisions across the industry on passing costs to consumers, trimming payrolls or reducing shareholder payouts.
Limited domestic alternatives
The United States once supported more than 300,000 workers in about 1,000 tanneries, mainly in the Midwest and Northeast, during the 1950s. The workforce has fallen to roughly 50,000 in 2025, with only a few hundred tanneries remaining, according to the Leather and Hide Council of America. Companies that rely on finished goods from Asia have felt the brunt of the tariffs, while firms sourcing leather domestically have faced fewer direct hits.
Rather than rebuilding U.S. capacity, many brands have moved production to alternative overseas locations such as Cambodia and Bangladesh. Those shifts introduced new complications, including congestion at ports and longer lead times.
Raw material shortage compounds costs
Tariffs are not the sole problem. The U.S. cattle herd is at its smallest since the 1950s after drought, elevated feed costs and herd liquidation. Because hides are an unavoidable by-product of beef production, fewer cattle translate into tighter supplies of premium hides. Twisted X CEO Prasad Reddy said the scarcity raises input prices for high-quality leather used in footwear.
Switching to synthetic materials offers limited savings. Many faux-leather and polyurethane fabrics depend on petrochemical feedstocks sourced from Asia, which also carry the new tariff schedules. Retailers report mid- to high-single-digit increases on synthetic shoes and handbags.
With tariffs unlikely to sunset soon and domestic manufacturing capacity constrained, most analysts expect elevated leather prices to persist at least through 2026, leaving both companies and consumers navigating a more expensive landscape.
Crédito da imagem: AFP / Getty Images