Thai King Dissolves Parliament as Border Fighting with Cambodia Intensifies

BANGKOK — Thailand’s political landscape shifted abruptly on Friday after King Maha Vajiralongkorn approved a request from Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul to dissolve parliament, forcing a national election within 45 to 60 days and deepening uncertainty as deadly clashes continue on the Cambodian border.

The royal decree followed weeks of gridlock in which Anutin’s minority coalition failed to secure support from the opposition People’s Party for a package of constitutional amendments. Opposition lawmakers had threatened a no-confidence motion, contending that the proposed overhaul would expand the powers of sitting legislators at the expense of checks and balances. By law, the dissolution triggers a countrywide vote no later than early February 2026.

Anutin, who took office in September after the Constitutional Court dismissed former premier Paetongtarn Shinawatra for an ethics breach related to the border dispute, framed the move as a return of authority to voters. In a brief statement posted late Thursday on Facebook, he said the impasse “must be resolved through the ballot box.” Local media outlets quoted the prime minister as saying that military operations along the frontier will proceed unchanged during the campaign period.

Border clashes escalate

The political rupture occurs amid the most serious fighting in years between Thailand and Cambodia over long-contested territory. Skirmishes that erupted earlier this week at several points along the 800-kilometer border have reportedly left at least 20 people dead and dozens of civilians wounded. Both governments accuse the other side of launching artillery and drone strikes in violation of a cease-fire negotiated by the United States in July.

Anutin has adopted a tougher public stance than his predecessor, a posture that analysts say could galvanize nationalist support for his conservative Bhumjaithai Party ahead of the snap election. Thai officials insist that their forces are responding to Cambodian incursions, while Phnom Penh alleges Bangkok is attempting to change facts on the ground before a permanent boundary settlement.

U.S. seeks to restore truce

U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to hold separate telephone conversations with Anutin and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet at 9:20 p.m. Thailand time Friday (8:20 a.m. Eastern), according to the Thai leader. Washington helped broker the July truce and has warned that stalled negotiations could jeopardize trade talks with both Southeast Asian nations. Earlier on Friday, Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow told U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio that Bangkok remains committed to a peaceful resolution but needs verifiable guarantees from Cambodia.

Oxford Economics cautioned that the conflict could extend into early 2026 if Bangkok concludes that a hard-line approach bolsters electoral prospects. Protracted hostilities, the firm said, may further strain Thailand’s economic outlook by disrupting cross-border commerce, deterring investment and prompting fresh U.S. tariff threats.

Economic headwinds mount

Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy expanded only 1.2 percent in the third quarter, dragged down by political volatility, external demand softness and border-related supply shocks. The benchmark SET Index has fallen roughly 10 percent in 2025, ranking among the world’s weakest equity performers, while the baht has appreciated more than 7 percent against the U.S. dollar amid broader greenback softness.

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Before fighting intensified, Cambodia ranked as Thailand’s 11th-largest export destination, accounting for about 3 percent of total shipments in 2024. Ministry of Commerce figures show exports to Cambodia plunged 67 percent year-on-year in October as major crossings closed. Oxford Economics projects that sustained conflict could remove between 500,000 and 1.5 million Cambodian migrant workers from Thailand’s 40 million-strong labor force, compounding domestic labor shortages.

Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics, noted that roughly one-third of Thai exports to Cambodia are refined petroleum products that could be redirected elsewhere. Nevertheless, he warned that Washington may reinstate higher tariffs on Thai goods if Bangkok is deemed responsible for violating the U.S.-brokered cease-fire.

The broader macroeconomic backdrop remains fragile. According to World Bank data, Thailand’s annual growth averaged just 1.5 percent between 2020 and 2024, well below its pre-pandemic trend, leaving limited fiscal room to absorb further shocks.

Next steps

The Election Commission must announce an official polling date within the next week, after which political parties will submit candidate lists and campaign platforms. The military, which has staged two coups since 2006, has not signaled any intent to intervene. However, analysts note that prolonged instability could invite greater security-sector influence over civilian decision-making.

As Bangkok prepares for an accelerated campaign and border units brace for further clashes, attention will center on whether Trump’s calls can revive the July cease-fire and avert wider regional fallout. Any breakthrough could ease pressure on trade negotiations and restore a measure of confidence to Thailand’s unsettled political and economic landscape.

Crédito da imagem: Bloomberg / Reuters