Private fixed investment edged down 0.3 percent, weighed by a 6.3 percent decline in nonresidential structures. Residential investment fell 5.1 percent, marking another contraction in the housing sector. In contrast, spending on equipment and intellectual property products each rose 5.4 percent, a pickup attributed in part to continued investment in artificial-intelligence-related technologies.
Trade flows provided a positive contribution to headline growth. Imports dropped 4.7 percent as patterns normalized following earlier tariff-induced volatility. With fewer foreign goods entering the country, net exports added 1.59 percentage points to third-quarter GDP.
Government consumption and investment increased 2.2 percent. Federal expenditures advanced 2.9 percent, led by a 5.8 percent jump in national defense outlays. Non-defense spending slipped 1.1 percent. At the state and local level, activity grew 1.8 percent, reflecting moderate gains in operating budgets and capital projects.
The release also indicated firmer price pressures. Although the BEA’s preferred inflation gauges were not detailed in the headline tables, the agency noted a pickup in several underlying measures compared with the prior quarter. Higher input costs in services and certain consumer-goods categories were cited as primary drivers.
Today’s report consolidates what would ordinarily be the “advance” and “second” estimates into a single publication because the recent shutdown curtailed data processing. The BEA stated that a revised third-quarter figure, incorporating more comprehensive source data, will be published on its regular schedule next month. Historically, subsequent adjustments can either add to or subtract from the initial growth rate, as additional information on trade, inventories and construction becomes available.
The stronger-than-expected expansion comes as policymakers assess the balance between resilient domestic demand and the need to keep inflation moving toward longer-term targets. Federal Reserve officials, who concluded their most recent policy meeting last week, have signaled that future interest-rate decisions will depend on the evolving mix of economic growth and price stability indicators.
Several private-sector economists cautioned that the headline figure may overstate momentum headed into the final three months of the year. Inventory accumulation, they noted, can boost GDP in one quarter only to reverse later if sales fall short of expectations. Nonetheless, the solid performance of consumer services and the rebound in equipment spending point to underlying demand that has yet to weaken significantly.
According to the BEA’s historical tables, third-quarter growth of 4.3 percent would rank among the fastest paces since the post-pandemic reopening phase in 2021. Whether the economy can maintain that trajectory will hinge on labor-market conditions, credit availability and global demand in the months ahead. Additional clarity is expected when the agency issues its comprehensive update, as well as when fourth-quarter data begin to emerge early next year.
For readers seeking direct access to the government data, the full report is available through the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which provides detailed tables and technical notes explaining the methodology behind the national income and product accounts.
Crédito da imagem: Bureau of Economic Analysis
