- 30-year fixed: 5.93%
- 20-year fixed: 5.90%
- 15-year fixed: 5.36%
- 5/1 ARM: 5.74%
- 7/1 ARM: 5.81%
- 30-year VA: 5.51%
- 15-year VA: 5.19%
- 5/1 VA: 5.09%
Refinance offers are running slightly higher on average, with Zillow reporting:
- 30-year fixed: 6.11%
- 20-year fixed: 5.88%
- 15-year fixed: 5.59%
- 5/1 ARM: 6.14%
- 7/1 ARM: 6.30%
- 30-year VA: 5.58%
- 15-year VA: 5.46%
- 5/1 VA: 5.09%
All figures are national means rounded to the nearest hundredth of a percentage point, and individual quotes can vary according to credit profile, loan size, property type and down-payment level.
Jobs report shifts rate outlook
The rate discussion pivoted on Thursday after the government released a weaker-than-expected report on job openings. A cooler labor market often reduces inflationary pressure, reinforcing speculation that the Federal Reserve may maintain or even ease its policy stance in upcoming meetings. Treasury yields, which heavily influence mortgage pricing, slipped in the immediate aftermath of the data.
Should bond yields continue to retreat, lenders could adjust mortgage offers lower. Market participants will look for confirmation in next week’s inflation reading and subsequent Fed communications.
Fixed versus adjustable choices
Borrowers remain split between fixed-rate stability and the initial savings that sometimes accompany adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). A fixed rate locks in the cost of financing for the full term—commonly 15 or 30 years—providing predictable monthly payments. By contrast, an ARM features a set introductory period, after which the rate resets on a predetermined schedule.
For example, a 7/1 ARM quoted at 6% would remain at that level for seven years before adjusting annually for the remaining 23 years. Movements after the introductory phase are tied to a benchmark index plus a margin, meaning payments may rise or fall depending on market conditions.
During the early years of any mortgage, a substantial share of each installment covers interest rather than principal. Over time, the interest component declines as the loan balance shrinks. Shorter terms accelerate that process: a 15-year loan carries a higher monthly payment but amortizes faster and typically commands a lower rate, reducing total interest expense.
Strategic considerations for buyers and owners
Prospective purchasers eyeing a 30-year fixed loan benefit from the lowest possible minimum payment and the security of a locked rate, though they assume higher lifetime interest costs compared with shorter maturities. Homeowners intent on building equity more quickly—or who can comfortably afford bigger payments—often weigh a 15-year fixed alternative.
ARMs historically appealed to borrowers planning to relocate or refinance before the introductory period ends. Recently, however, initial ARM quotes have converged with— and occasionally exceeded—30-year fixed offers, reducing their relative advantage. Analysts therefore recommend comparing multiple scenarios across lenders to identify the most economical structure.
Long-range projections remain steady
Despite day-to-day fluctuations, economists do not anticipate a dramatic slide in mortgage pricing over the next two years. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projects the average 30-year fixed rate will hover near 6.1% through the end of 2026, edging only slightly higher to a range of 6.2%–6.3% during 2027. Fannie Mae’s baseline forecast similarly centers on a 30-year average close to 6% for 2026 and 2027. Those outlooks assume steady—rather than aggressive—monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.
Historically, mortgage rates move in tandem with the 10-year Treasury yield. Investors tracking that gauge can consult daily updates from the U.S. Department of the Treasury for a real-time read on market sentiment.
Next steps for borrowers
Individuals ready to lock a rate may benefit from collecting quotes from several lenders in quick succession; most credit bureaus treat multiple mortgage inquiries within a narrow window as a single event, limiting any impact on credit scores. Points, lender credits and closing timelines also vary, adding further incentive to compare offers closely.
Borrowers considering a refinance should calculate the break-even period—the time necessary for monthly savings to recoup closing costs. With current refinance rates only marginally higher than purchase rates, some owners with older, above-market loans might still capture meaningful savings, particularly if they also shorten the term.
Regardless of product choice, experts recommend documenting income, assets and debt obligations before beginning the application process. Well-prepared files can accelerate underwriting and improve bargaining power.
Key takeaways
- Freddie Mac places the average 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.11% and the 15-year at 5.50% for the week ending February 6.
- Zillow quotes show national averages of 5.93% on 30-year fixed purchase loans and 6.11% on 30-year fixed refinances.
- A weaker job openings report pressured Treasury yields lower, potentially setting the stage for modest rate declines.
- Analysts at the MBA and Fannie Mae foresee 30-year fixed rates holding near 6% through 2027.
- Borrowers can improve outcomes by shopping multiple lenders, evaluating fixed versus adjustable structures and understanding break-even horizons for refinances.
Crédito da imagem: Freddie Mac
