Cryptocurrency rout gathers pace
Bitcoin slumped more than 7% to trade briefly below $85,000, extending a slide that has erased roughly 30% since the token’s October peak above $126,000. Analysts cited concerns that a potential Bank of Japan rate increase could unwind popular yen-funded carry trades, prompting investors to sell higher-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. Exchange-traded funds tracking the asset class recorded about $3.5 billion in outflows last month, the second-worst reading on record. Shares of crypto-linked companies mirrored the retreat: Strategy dropped 10%, Coinbase slipped 5%, and Robinhood fell 4%.
Safe-haven demand lifts gold and silver
Spot prices for precious metals moved in the opposite direction. Gold futures climbed above $4,270 per troy ounce, placing the metal within reach of October’s all-time high and bringing the year-to-date gain to more than 60%. Silver rose nearly 2% to a fresh record above $58 per ounce. Traders pointed to increased expectations for lower U.S. borrowing costs and tight physical supply as key supports.
Rate-cut speculation intensifies
Derivatives markets priced an 87% probability that the Federal Reserve will lower its benchmark rate by 25 basis points at next week’s policy meeting, up sharply from below 40% in late November. The central bank entered its customary communications blackout on Friday, leaving economic releases to guide expectations. The most closely watched report arrives Friday, when the delayed September Personal Consumption Expenditures index— the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge— is scheduled for publication.
Separately, President Donald Trump said over the weekend he has chosen a successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in February. He did not identify the nominee, but White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett is widely viewed as a leading candidate. Any change at the top of the central bank could influence the path of monetary policy in 2026 and beyond.
Manufacturing contraction persists
Economic data published Monday showed continued weakness in factory activity. The Institute for Supply Management reported a November Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index of 48.2, down from 48.7 in October and marking a ninth consecutive month below the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction. Survey respondents cited higher input costs tied to tariffs, labor shortages and lingering supply-chain disruptions.
Bond yields edge higher on global rate concerns
A sell-off in Japanese government bonds spilled into other sovereign markets, lifting the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury by three basis points to 4.04%. Traders reacted to speculation that the Bank of Japan could raise its benchmark rate later this month, a move that would end the central bank’s long-standing negative-rate policy and potentially alter global capital flows. Additional context on Fed policy and bond markets can be found on the Federal Reserve’s official website.
Retailers eye record Cyber Monday
Adobe Analytics projected that U.S. consumers would spend a record $14.2 billion online by the end of Cyber Monday, up 6.3% from last year. Spending was expected to peak between 8 p.m. and 10 p.m. Eastern Time, when sales could reach $16 million per minute. Use of “buy now, pay later” services was forecast to top $1 billion for the day, the highest on record, as shoppers sought flexible payment options amid softening consumer confidence.
Commodity and corporate highlights
• UBS Global Wealth Management said in a client note that the historical combination of a non-recessionary economy and Fed rate cuts tends to favor equities, reinforcing its constructive outlook on U.S. stocks.
• Barrick Mining gained 3% in early trading after announcing it may pursue an initial public offering of its North American gold assets. The company intends to retain a controlling stake if the spin-off proceeds.
• The industrials sector lagged the broader market, falling about 1.6% over the past month, as higher input costs and trade friction weighed on margins.
With Wall Street’s traditional year-end “Santa Claus rally” in doubt, investors enter December balancing hopes for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut against persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties. Market attention now shifts to the upcoming PCE inflation reading and the central bank’s policy decision scheduled for next week.
Crédito da imagem: Getty Images
