Cryptocurrency markets were hit harder. Bitcoin dropped more than 7%, briefly sliding under $85,000 after ending Friday near $91,000. Analysts cited concerns of a potential rate increase by the Bank of Japan, which could unwind popular yen-funded carry trades and pressure risk assets. The largest digital coin is now more than 30% below its October record above $126,000. Crypto-exposed equities mirrored the retreat: MicroStrategy fell about 10%, Coinbase Global lost 5%, and Robinhood Markets shed 4%.
Rate expectations remained a central driver. Futures contracts still imply better than an 85% probability the Federal Open Market Committee will trim its policy rate by 25 basis points at next week’s gathering, yet the central bank is in its customary pre-meeting communications blackout. With commentary from officials off the table, upcoming data are taking on added weight. September’s delayed Personal Consumption Expenditures price index—scheduled for release Friday—will provide the latest insight into inflation, the Fed’s primary focus. Additional context on past decisions and future policy objectives can be found on the Federal Reserve’s official monetary policy page.
Treasury yields inched higher as selling spilled into global bond markets. The 10-year note yield rose three basis points to roughly 4.04% after a jump in Japanese government bond yields to the highest since 2008. Moves in sovereign debt from Europe to New Zealand followed the same direction.
Domestic manufacturing offered little relief. The Institute for Supply Management reported its November Purchasing Managers’ Index at 48.2, down from 48.7 in October and marking a ninth consecutive month of contraction. Survey participants pointed to persistent tariff-related costs, lingering supply-chain disruptions and labor shortages. Index components for new orders, employment, supplier deliveries and backlog weakened, although production and prices improved slightly.
The political backdrop added another variable. President Donald Trump said over the weekend he has chosen a successor for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who has frequently clashed with the administration. No name was provided, but speculation centers on White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett. Markets are watching for confirmation and potential implications for future monetary strategy.
Commodity moves were mixed. Silver climbed nearly 2% to a fresh record above $58 an ounce, extending Friday’s 6% surge amid expectations of lower U.S. rates and tight supply. Crude oil rose as well after a loading facility on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium network was damaged, curbing exports of Kazakh crude shipped through Russia’s Black Sea ports.
In corporate news outside technology, Canadian miner Barrick gained about 3% after saying it is evaluating an initial public offering of its North American gold assets. The proposed entity would hold interests in Nevada Gold Mines, the Pueblo Viejo operation in the Dominican Republic and the Fourmile discovery in Nevada, while Barrick would retain a controlling stake.
On the consumer front, Adobe Analytics projected a record $14.2 billion in online spending for Cyber Monday, up 6.3% from last year. Shoppers are expected to concentrate purchases on electronics, apparel and furniture, increasingly using “buy now, pay later” plans. The service could account for $1 billion of same-day spending, the firm estimated.
Seasonality may prove less supportive than usual. December has historically delivered above-average equity gains, but strategists warn the traditional “Santa Claus rally” could be muted this year. Heightened geopolitical tensions, the pending Fed decision and uncertainty over leadership at the central bank have combined to keep risk appetite in check, leading some observers to question whether 2025 will break from typical year-end patterns.
Crédito da imagem: Getty Images
