Walmart’s 312% Share Surge Under Doug McMillon Sets a High Bar for Incoming CEO

Walmart Corp. will enter a new chapter on the first day of February, when John Furner succeeds Doug McMillon as chief executive officer. Furner inherits a company whose market value has expanded dramatically since McMillon assumed the top job in February 2014. During McMillon’s decade-long tenure, Walmart shares advanced approximately 312%, a performance that eclipsed most large U.S. retailers and positioned the Bentonville, Arkansas–based company as a formidable player across brick-and-mortar and e-commerce channels.

The stock appreciation was not confined to isolated periods. Walmart recorded positive annual returns in nine of the twelve calendar years in which McMillon led the organization. Only Amazon and Costco produced stronger gains among Walmart’s primary competitors. Amazon shares rose about 1,225% over the same span, while Costco’s stock climbed more than 700%. By contrast, Target, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Kroger and Albertsons delivered substantially smaller increases.

Revenue Expansion and Strategic Shifts

Financial results illustrate the scale of Walmart’s growth. Company revenue was roughly level during McMillon’s first three fiscal years—$486 billion, $482 billion and $485 billion in the periods ending January 2015, 2016 and 2017, respectively. Growth accelerated after that plateau. For the fiscal year that ended in early 2024, Walmart reported approximately $681 billion in sales, representing about a 40% rise from the figure posted in McMillon’s inaugural year. Current guidance indicates annual sales will exceed $700 billion for the first time when the present fiscal year closes.

The share and revenue performance reflect a series of strategic moves. Walmart raised hourly wages, expanded curbside pickup and delivery, and invested heavily in digital infrastructure as consumers shifted online. Those initiatives helped the chain navigate pandemic-era disruptions, high inflation and shifting tariff landscapes. McMillon also maintained the company’s reputation for low prices while integrating marketplace sellers and advertising services into its business model.

Leadership Transition

Although McMillon will leave the CEO post at January’s end, he will remain executive chairman and advisor. Furner, who currently runs Walmart U.S., has been closely linked to recent domestic growth, making his elevation a choice that signals continuity. Still, matching the shareholder returns logged during McMillon’s stewardship poses a challenge, especially as the competitive set evolves.

One dynamic already confronting the incoming CEO is Walmart’s shifting rank in the global retail hierarchy. While the company is on pace for record annual revenue, it is expected to fall behind Amazon on that measure. Amazon surpassed Walmart in quarterly sales earlier this year, aided by sizable contributions from its cloud computing, advertising and third-party seller divisions—areas where Walmart’s exposure is comparatively limited.

Competitive Landscape

Target provides a striking contrast. Its shares gained about 60% between February 2014 and today, well below Walmart’s 312% climb. Although Target posted rapid stock appreciation during the pandemic, its annual sales have stagnated for roughly four years, limiting recent market performance. The Minneapolis-based retailer will also undergo a leadership change in February, when Chief Operating Officer Michael Fiddelke is scheduled to replace longtime CEO Brian Cornell.

Warehouse club rival Costco stands out as one of the few retailers that outpaced Walmart in the market. Its more than 700% share gain since early 2014 reflects growth from membership fees, food sales and ancillary services. Costco competes head-to-head with both Walmart’s supercenters and its Sam’s Club banner.

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The supermarket sector trailed by a wider margin. Kroger shares appreciated 265% during McMillon’s term, while Albertsons advanced only 16% after its 2020 initial public offering. The two grocers attempted a merger beginning in 2022 to bolster scale against Walmart, Amazon and Costco, but a federal judge blocked the transaction following an antitrust lawsuit filed by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission.

Discount chains that compete directly on price also lagged. Dollar Tree posted a 104% gain in the period, and Dollar General climbed 85%. Both companies outperformed Walmart at certain points, yet each has struggled recently amid shifting consumer traffic and elevated shrink.

Wall Street Reaction

The market took McMillon’s retirement announcement in stride. Walmart shares were little changed on the day, extending a 13% advance logged since the beginning of the year. Analysts and investors now turn their attention to Furner’s strategic priorities, including same-day fulfillment expansion, private-label penetration and potential monetization of the company’s growing advertising network.

Whether those initiatives replicate the 312% return achieved under McMillon remains to be seen, but Walmart enters the leadership transition with significant momentum, record revenue prospects and a balance sheet fortified by years of steady operational gains.

Crédito da imagem: Nurphoto | Getty Images