Novo Nordisk Scales Back Growth Forecast for Ozempic and Wegovy as Pricing Pressures Rise - Trance Living

Novo Nordisk Scales Back Growth Forecast for Ozempic and Wegovy as Pricing Pressures Rise

Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk reduced its full-year growth targets for its flagship obesity and diabetes medicines after reporting third-quarter results that matched profit expectations but showed slower momentum in prescriptions and revenue. The company cited intensifying competition, ongoing price negotiations and broader market headwinds as the primary reasons for the more cautious outlook.

Net profit for the three months ended in September reached 20 billion Danish kroner (approximately $3.1 billion), in line with the FactSet consensus of 20.12 billion kroner. Although demand for the injectable therapies Ozempic and Wegovy remained strong, Novo Nordisk said prescription growth is moderating while rivals expand their own portfolios of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) treatments. The company now expects revenue to expand 8% to 11% at constant exchange rates, down from a previous band of 8% to 14%. Guidance for operating profit growth has been trimmed to 4% to 7%, compared with the prior forecast of 4% to 10%.

Investors reacted sharply when the results were released on Wednesday. Novo Nordisk shares fell 4.5% at the open on Nasdaq Copenhagen but reversed course within the first hour of trading, rising 1.8% by 8:15 a.m. in London (3:15 a.m. Eastern). Even with the intraday rebound, the stock remains down 44.8% year-to-date, reflecting a broader sell-off in companies exposed to tightening reimbursement rules and looming U.S. pricing reforms.

Sales of Wegovy, Novo Nordisk’s once-weekly weight-loss injection, advanced 18% year on year to 20.35 billion kroner in the quarter, slightly below analyst expectations of 21.35 billion kroner. Revenue from Ozempic, primarily prescribed for type 2 diabetes but often used off-label for weight management, also contributed to growth but faced similar pricing pressure. Novo Nordisk said several large health insurers have tightened prior-authorization criteria, a trend the company anticipates will persist into 2025.

Operating profit for the first nine months of 2025 rose 10% from the comparable period a year earlier to 95.9 billion kroner. Excluding approximately 9 billion kroner in restructuring costs, management calculates that operating profit would have increased 21%. President and Chief Executive Mike Doustdar said the firm intends to accelerate manufacturing capacity and speed up clinical development of next-generation weight-management drugs to defend market share.

The lower forecast marks the fourth downward revision this year. Novo Nordisk attributed the repeated adjustments to a confluence of factors, including slower-than-planned onboarding of new patients, higher rebate demands by U.S. pharmacy benefit managers and growing competition from pharmaceutical peers such as Eli Lilly and Pfizer. The competitive landscape has become especially crowded as several companies bring GLP-1 receptor agonists to advanced stages of development. An overview of these medicines is available on the U.S. Food and Drug Administration website.

Analyst opinions have diverged. Jefferies recently cut its rating on Novo Nordisk to underperform, pointing to what it described as “persistent headline risk” and limited near-term catalysts. In contrast, Berenberg maintained a favorable stance, arguing that Novo Nordisk’s research productivity and established commercial infrastructure warrant a premium valuation despite current volatility.

Novo Nordisk Scales Back Growth Forecast for Ozempic and Wegovy as Pricing Pressures Rise - Imagem do artigo original

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Beyond core operations, the company has been active on the mergers-and-acquisitions front. Novo Nordisk last week submitted a competing bid for U.S. obesity-focused biotech Metsera, challenging an existing agreement between Metsera and Pfizer. Pfizer responded on Monday with a second lawsuit against both Novo Nordisk and Metsera, alleging the Danish firm’s offer is anticompetitive. Novo Nordisk rejected the claim as baseless and, on Tuesday, raised its proposal to up to $10 billion, exceeding its earlier indication of roughly $9 billion. Metsera’s board deemed the revised offer superior to Pfizer’s latest terms, though any deal remains subject to the conditions of Pfizer’s merger agreement and potential regulatory review.

Novo Nordisk is also moving ahead with the planned acquisition of Akero Therapeutics Inc., a U.S. company developing treatments for metabolic liver diseases. Management views the transaction as complementary to its existing pipeline, which includes an oral GLP-1 candidate now in late-stage trials for weight management. Doustdar indicated that successful integration of Akero and potential ownership of Metsera would broaden Novo Nordisk’s presence in metabolic disorders beyond diabetes and obesity.

While management expressed confidence in the medium-term outlook, near-term uncertainties tied to reimbursement negotiations, potential U.S. drug-pricing legislation and the timing of competitive launches have weighed on market sentiment. Novo Nordisk said it will continue to monitor prescription trends and adjust production schedules accordingly, with a focus on avoiding product shortages that have affected the availability of Wegovy in some markets.

Crédito da imagem: Lee Smith | Reuters

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