Trump Media Plans Prediction Market on Truth Social Through Crypto.com Partnership

Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), the company behind the social network Truth Social, announced on Tuesday that it intends to introduce a prediction market feature called Truth Predict. Developed in cooperation with cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com, the tool is designed to let users place wagers on the outcomes of political contests, sporting events and other measurable occurrences directly within the social platform.

The Florida-based firm, which trades on Nasdaq under the ticker DJT and is majority-owned by former U.S. President Donald Trump and members of his family, said beta testing will begin “in the near future.” A nationwide rollout is expected to follow, with international availability planned once regulatory requirements in additional jurisdictions are satisfied.

Event contracts on Truth Predict will be offered through Crypto.com Derivatives North America, an affiliate registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Leveraging this regulated entity allows TMTG to operate prediction markets in the United States, where oversight of such contracts falls under the CFTC’s jurisdiction. Information about CFTC registration standards can be found on the regulator’s official website.

Participants will need Crypto.com’s native cryptocurrency CRO to trade the event contracts. According to TMTG, users will be able to convert their existing in-app reward tokens, known as Truth Gems, into CRO. Immediately after the plan became public, CRO briefly climbed about 6 percent from approximately $0.15 to nearly $0.17 before returning to just under $0.15.

The prediction market initiative extends an existing relationship between TMTG and Crypto.com. CRO already functions as a utility token on Truth Social and the group’s video streaming service, Truth+. In addition, the two companies have created a joint CRO treasury vehicle intended to manage token holdings and liquidity.

In outlining the rationale for Truth Predict, TMTG chair Devin Nunes said the feature seeks to expand public access to information and market-based forecasting tools. The company framed the project as an effort to turn user engagement on Truth Social into actionable insights, positioning the product as an alternative to traditional polling and analyst commentary.

Prediction markets gained wider visibility during the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle, when several blockchain-based platforms processed billions of dollars in wagers. Activity has remained elevated in 2025. Market-research data compiled last month indicated that Polymarket and Kalshi—the two largest non-sports venues—recorded a combined all-time-high monthly volume of roughly $1.44 billion.

Donald Trump Jr., the former president’s eldest son, serves as an adviser to both Polymarket and Kalshi. His investment vehicle, 1789 Capital, provided funding to Polymarket in 2024 and again earlier this year. The arrival of Truth Predict therefore places the Trump family in the unusual position of supporting one set of prediction platforms while launching a competing service under the Truth Social banner.

How Truth Predict Will Operate

Event contracts on the new product will resemble binary options in which a trader buys a position that pays either $1 or $0 depending on whether the specified event occurs. Traders can exit positions before settlement, allowing the contract price to reflect collective expectations. TMTG said Truth Predict will focus initially on U.S. political races, professional sports outcomes and entertainment award results, though the range of subjects may expand over time.

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The company did not disclose specific fee schedules, minimum trade sizes or limits on individual positions. It did note that user onboarding will include know-your-customer verification in line with CFTC rules and Crypto.com’s existing compliance framework.

Regulatory and Competitive Landscape

While binary event contracts fall under the CFTC’s purview, questions about how far prediction markets can extend remain. Kalshi, for example, is seeking approval to list contracts on control of the U.S. House of Representatives—an application still under review. By partnering with a CFTC-registered derivatives entity from the outset, TMTG is aiming to minimize regulatory friction, although state-level restrictions could still affect availability in certain jurisdictions.

Truth Predict’s debut also enters an increasingly crowded field. Beyond Polymarket and Kalshi, sports-oriented firms such as DraftKings and FanDuel continue to explore crossover products that integrate traditional sportsbooks with proposition markets on non-sports topics. In crypto circles, decentralized protocols including Augur and Omen allow users to create and trade event markets without centralized intermediaries, though U.S. residents often face access hurdles due to securities and commodities regulations.

TMTG’s plan to incorporate its own reward token and the CRO currency may provide a built-in liquidity pool among Truth Social’s user base, which the company estimates at more than 10 million registered accounts. However, sustained trading volume will likely depend on whether the platform can attract speculators currently active on rival services that already command substantial liquidity and market depth.

For now, the launch timeline remains limited to a forthcoming beta test. TMTG said additional technical details, supported event categories and user guidelines will be published once the beta phase begins.

Crédito da imagem: Benzinga